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Comment by lolinder | Hacker News Reader

What makes you think that China has much sway over Iran?

The world isn't divided into the countries that are under American hegemony and the countries that are under Chinese hegemony. It's more that there are the countries under American hegemony, the countries on mostly-friendly terms with the Americans but able to say no to them, and the small number of countries that are entirely cut off by the USA.

This last group tends to not want to just trade one hegemon for another, they try their best to become self-sufficient and able to say no to everyone. Iran is very much in that category: just because they're on friendlier terms with China than with the USA doesn't make them beholden to them.

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Something like 70-80% of Iran's budget comes from oil sales, and around 90% of Iran's oil sales are to China.

I'd guess that would make Iran take requests from China very seriously.

Or the other way around. It might make China take requests from Iran very seriously. Depends on whether China needs the oil worse than Iran needs the money.

[Edit: I'm rate limited for my own good, so I'm replying to jimbokun here: Which do I think is more likely? I have no data. Particularly, I have no data about the elasticity of China's oil demand.]

Which do you think is more likely?

Ok but just logically. What’s more important? 80% of your economy? Or more expensive energy? Whatever we believe about the latter, the former is existential.

> 80% of your economy? Or more expensive energy?

Logically they are the same thing. Economy makes things with energy.

Let’s use common sense though please. What’s more important?

~90% of government revenue that has no substitute?

Or ~10% of oil imports for which there are a plethora of alternatives?

Well, see, that was my question. Are there a plethora of alternatives for China? If they cut off Iran, where would they get the replacement oil from? Who has the capacity. Are they willing to sell to China? If so, at what price? If it's freely available, and at the same price, that answers my question. If it's only available at a higher price, then the question is, what does that higher price do to China's economy? And if it's not available at all, what does the absence do to China's economy?

You said "a plethora of alternatives". Are there, really? Can you (or someone) show that others are ready and willing to supply that much oil?

No matter what kind of interesting questions you want to pose, shutting down ~90% of tax revenue is worse than shutting down 10% of one source of energy. It’s frankly very silly to hypothesize otherwise.

Oil prices go higher and more countries open up rules to allow some Iranian oil. That 90% gets replaced but that 10% loss causes the 90% to increase.

Losing Iran's oil probably causes a world war.

I don’t know why everyone in this thread is thinking so small picture. We’re in a Cold War.

China has a significant interest in disrupting western control and does so without provoking direct open war by funding Iran’s funding of destabilizing forces (Houthi, hezbollah, taliban, Isis, hamas).

Perhaps, but isn't the Suez Canal the only reasonable way to ship bulk goods between Europe and Asia? Doesn't China depend heavily on access to the European markets that these attacks disrupt? I would think that that would outweigh their other interests here.

ignoring what you learned from us political thoric... what do you think would happen to China if all sea trade halted today?

Famine?

china is mostly self sufficient on food. or can do with local Thai or Philippines just fine.

for context, they buy all the soy from USA and Brazil just to feed pigs because their middle class exploded and now want premium food.

see, you're still thinking under the political taking points of USA and not looking at actual data.

You are correct, but a country like Iran doesn't have any trade partner other than China, so if China wants it can put enough pressure on them to stop. I.e., Iran will be forced to listen to China, not that it likes.

China purchases about 90% of Iranian oil which is the only meaningful source of revenue for this fiscally starved country

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