The geopolitical calculus here seems a bit hard to follow.
Surely China suffers disproportionately from more difficult export traffic to the point that it should be incentivized to tell Iran to tell the Houthis to cut it out
Surely China suffers disproportionately from more difficult export traffic to the point that it should be incentivized to tell Iran to tell the Houthis to cut it out
The world isn't divided into the countries that are under American hegemony and the countries that are under Chinese hegemony. It's more that there are the countries under American hegemony, the countries on mostly-friendly terms with the Americans but able to say no to them, and the small number of countries that are entirely cut off by the USA.
This last group tends to not want to just trade one hegemon for another, they try their best to become self-sufficient and able to say no to everyone. Iran is very much in that category: just because they're on friendlier terms with China than with the USA doesn't make them beholden to them.
I'd guess that would make Iran take requests from China very seriously.
[Edit: I'm rate limited for my own good, so I'm replying to jimbokun here: Which do I think is more likely? I have no data. Particularly, I have no data about the elasticity of China's oil demand.]
Logically they are the same thing. Economy makes things with energy.
~90% of government revenue that has no substitute?
Or ~10% of oil imports for which there are a plethora of alternatives?
You said "a plethora of alternatives". Are there, really? Can you (or someone) show that others are ready and willing to supply that much oil?
Losing Iran's oil probably causes a world war.
for context, they buy all the soy from USA and Brazil just to feed pigs because their middle class exploded and now want premium food.
see, you're still thinking under the political taking points of USA and not looking at actual data.
In January, the Chinese media outlet Global Times reported that Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi had said, “China has been making active efforts to ease the tension in the Red Sea.”
Then a Reuters article claimed that China had communicated a vague but threatening statement to the Iranians: If Chinese vessels or economic interests were to be impacted by the Houthi attacks, it could harm Sino-Iranian business relations.
The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied the report, but Islamic Republican, an official Iranian newspaper, published an article criticising the “selfish demand” of the Chinese, claiming that China showed a willingness to “help the Zionist regime” and advised it not to “extend your legs beyond your own carpet”. (In other words, stay out of it.)
The US keeps demanding China throw its weight behind getting the US and its allies out of the geopolitical quagmires we eagerly jumped into (and claimed we'd solve no problem, e.g. "Houthis FAFO"). It's getting pretty sad. Maybe the United States could use its leverage with Israel to enforce the UN Security Council resolution all members including the US and China voted for? Stop flooding our weapons into the illegal war destabilizing the region? But no.
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2024/3/6/china-does-not-h...
https://www.newsweek.com/russia-crimea-air-defense-yevpatori...
https://x.com/auto_glam/status/1804869425092313124
And as you highlighted this is Russia's own doing, as the damage was from its own air defense missiles
It makes a good case for, among other things, that once the US stops enforcing order on the seas, globally, that there’s going to be at best regional powers looking out for their own interests, only, and widespread piracy where even that is lacking.
Draught is one thing, but if pirates attacking commercial ships aren’t being smacked down that’s pretty alarming and doesn’t bode well.
Russia has successfully switched to a war economy, US companies that pulled out are co-opted by Russian ones and doing business in a more or less normal manner. Sanctions have failed, and pushed Russia closer to China (not to mention North Korea).
When you view purely through the lens of demography, you can't extrapolate to global politics.
I remember I expected Europe to try the appeasement nonsense that only emboldened the precious century’s fascist expansion effort.
I was surprised and delighted to see any level of resistance, even if it’s only to enable Ukraine to hold the line.
I dunno, friend. No offense, but I’m going to go with the professional geopolitical strategist’s take over yours -especially where I perceive subsequent reality validating his ideas- unless you’ve got comparable creds of your own or more substance to your refution of his ideas.
I’m pretty sure these countries aren’t beloved allies of each other, right? China presumably could politely ask Iran, who’d have to weigh their priorities, and the Houthis might just keep launching rockets anyway, they aren’t exactly a branch of Iran’s military or anything.
It works better for Iran that way.