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Comment by shrubble | Hacker News Reader

In order for a bus to actually be an efficient mass transit option, it has to be used.

Buses on regular roads create a "shadow" that affects other vehicles behind it and reduces 2 lanes in one direction to an efficiency of much less than 2 lanes, due to stops and starts. And except for peak usage times outside of a few major US cities, I would argue it is a net congestion creator rather than congestion reducer. A bus has the same effect as 10 or 15 cars, from my observation; so if there are less than 15 people on a bus, it's worse.

Part of the reason that buses have wraps or tinted windows is so you can't see how few people are riding on it.

At least the Waymo is not moving and not on the road when not in use.

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> And except for peak usage times

Peak usage times are obviously what matters for congestion

> I would argue it is a net congestion creator rather than congestion reducer

I think buses even outside of peak hours are usually net congestion removers... but if you want them to be congestion removers during peak times, you also need to offer service during other times.

Can you explain how a bus, which takes up only the space that 2-3 vehicles can add the equivalent of 10-15?

Even triple the space usage, is leas than what you claim to observe. What is your methodology for determining this?

Buses are much slower to accelerate, and unlike most cars, you can't see what is ahead of the car in front of you.

When you get a chance, follow behind one during a non-congestion period and count the cars that pass you in the other lane (meaning, your lane is slower) and estimate how many additional cars it would take to have the same speed of traffic (how many cars would need to be in your lane, instead of 1 bus, for the lane to be as slow?).

That behavior inconsequential during non-congestion hours as the traffic can flow around the bus or else there'd be congestion, and helpful when traffic is near congestion. Traffic models show that it's the sudden acceleration and esp deceleration that "propagate" and cause congestion, accelerating slower and staying (at a safe distance so you don't have to hit the brakes) behind the bus are helpful.

Imo everyone driving unpredictably to "get ahead" and save (literally, do the math) 1 minute on a 30 minute commute is what causes a lot of congestion.

Imo even if a bus took up 10 car spaces, the more predicable driving and slower accel/decel might still be a net positive for traffic flow.

Traffic congestion increases nonlinearly[1]. i.e. the 10th car on a road has a smaller effect than the 100th car on the road. Accordingly, the cost of increasing a bus' size and decreasing its speed pales in comparison to the value derived by removing 5-20 cars from the road.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cHSCmQnGH9Q

But there have to be 20 people inside the bus (approximately 50% utilization) for that effect to be seen. Do you see that many on the bus at non peak times?

Realistically a bus is 2-3 times the size of a car. I think you need like 5 people to justify it. And 6 before you're actively addressing traffic. Most bus capacity is around 10. Which is 4 cars saved.

Also, do you care about the state of traffic at off-peak hours? who cares if buses don't run at peak capacity when there's no traffic?

The claim is that this is because buses start and stop more often. I can see how that would affect congestion. The specific numbers to seem to be an ass-pull though.

The dedidicated lne even just at the bus stops eliminates that issue.

But like I said, triple the “physical space” the bus actually takes up and that is still less than their claimed “space consumption” of a bus.

And Waymos would need to also stop to pick people up as well…

Yeah, bus systems suck. People avoid buses because they have unreliable schedules, and dedicated bus lanes are intended to improve that. Putting every rider on a bus into their own dedicated rideshare car isn't really going to improve things, though...

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