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Comment by V__ | Hacker News Reader

What I don't fully understand is why TSMC's stock isn't skyrocketing as well. Isn't nvidia totally dependent on them, how can they scale to meet their sky-high evaluation without TSMC expanding massively as well.

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Emotional investing != value investing. TSMC is an absolutely critical business to the Western world, and continues to be. Even with the CHIPS and Science Act, America still lacks silicon full-stack self-reliance.

TSMC is a beneficiary but not as much as you'd think because NVIDIA charges a very huge markup and HMB DRAM is about half the BOM cost.

Why shouldn't Micron get a pop then though?

DRAM glut occurs periodically, cutting into their bottom lines, and DRAM is a pretty low-margin product due to fierce competition. So Micron is a riskier investment.

Micron stock has done very well.

TSMC's stock is skyrocketing +70% in a year.

TSMC revenue is smaller than Nvidia revenue.

TSMC profit margin is great, but not as great as Nvidia.

Nvidia probably has a better chance of adding new suppliers than TSMC finding a new Nvidia to sell to.

Factually incorrect. If Nvidia dropped TSMC, TSMC could still sell to apple, AMD and others. If TSMC dropped Nvidia, Nvidia would literally have no other options for cutting edge nodes.

TSMC already sells to those companies, so I don't think that addressed the scenario. I would imagine that other chip fabs would be able to pick up the slack, including many that are purchasing from ASML already and are on track to begin matching TSMC from a node perspective in a year or 2.

It's up 70% YoY.

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