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Comment by foobarkey | Hacker News Reader

So what’s the game plan to compete with industry in China in 30 years when they have built out enough nuclear to do anything?

Adtech and LLM-s I guess :)

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Why is this entire thread pretending that nuclear power is cost effective, even in China? Um, it's not.

Great, China builds 150 nuke plants and all need subsidization to the wazoo. Go ahead.

The future of energy competitiveness is solar and wind buildout, because cheap power wins nation state economics.

I really hope China cranks out a somewhat-competitive nuke plant on LCOE cost, but I really doubt it. But they are doing a LFTR, pebble beds, modular, etc. Meanwhile solar and wind will continue to drop every year, this year's Lazard LCOE report be damned. Perovskites are coming, and sodium ion batteries are coming, and windmills keep getting bigger and better.

The real contribution of China is dropping the cost of solar and batteries to ludicrously low levels. Nukes? Whatever, have fun. If they iron out how to make a competitive hopefully-scalable hopefully-breeding nuke plant? I'll happily eat my words.

speaking of LLMs, energy grid is one of the bottlenecks predicted in its progress on the nation level...

Fair point, if the one with the most energy wins LLM-s battle then China looks like it will do even better

At least West has chairs, chairs are like people :)

In 30 years the cost of solar panels+batteries will have fallen so low that power will be the least important part of any manufacturing process. In fact, it already is for everything but the most commodified, low margin products, things that first world countries have no interest in competing.

China is currently cornering the market on solar panels and batteries and some would say "flooding" the global market to lower costs. If the West doesn't figure out an alternative source for the solar+battery supply chain they could be at the mercy of China in 30 years.

EU has set fairly aggressive target for battery and solar recycling. The supply chain will be far easier and cleaner when most of the materials can be gotten from recycling.

Kind of a bad deal for China in the long term if you think about it: they’re polluting themselves to refine battery and solar materials for the west, and I don’t think they’ll get much of a long term dependence/benefit from it. Renewables are not like oil where you build up a long lasting supply chain dependence.

The good thing for China is that they’re keeping a lot of batteries/solar for themselves as well and the west is helping to finance that.

Solar has become a commodity technology and it largely won't matter who is manufacturing it.

Solar also is primarily replacing energy imports. So many not spend on buying gas/oil/coal is now being spend on buying solar panels. Thus the petro economies have much more to worry about that money is directed from them to China.

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