1. The certificate appeared to be available to anyone who was looking hard enough. Microsoft provided the misconfigured certificate to anyone activating their Terminal Services product (!). Pretty embarrassing.
2. It's not evident what the signing requirements are for Microsoft Automatic Updates code (at least I can't find them). Presumably they validate an explicit Windows Update chain, but if they don't, this could perhaps enable an attacker to auto-install the Flame virus as an update. I doubt that would be the case, but their security announcements aren't very forthcoming.