I have no information about either company and take no position on whether the allegations are true. But note that what Scorpion Capital is doing here is a classic play of 1) establishing a short position and then 2) publishing research to convince the market to dump the stock. Of course, this classic play is most effective if they are right.
Again, I know nothing. I just find financial markets interesting.
Hindenburg Research LLC is a U.S. investment research firm with a focus on activist short-selling… Named after the 1937 Hindenburg disaster, which they characterize as a human-made avoidable disaster, the firm generates public reports via its website that allege corporate fraud and malfeasance.
With other short sellers, the story was easier to understand and verify,e.g. Chinese plane ticket sellers where it turned out basically impossible to buy a plane ticket. I also found the allegations against Wirecard in Hackernews plausible, since such a complex network of companies rarely has legit applications. But Lasertec Corporation, I don't know.
E.g. :"Sources indicate that customers – presumably Intel - who claim to use Lasertec’s EUV tool are secretly using its old DUV system instead; that TSMC is running parallel, redundant inspections with non-EUV tools and has reverted to the DUV-based inspection process it used prior to Lasertec; that the market window for actinic EUV mask inspection is rapidly closing, as the next phase in EUV is High NA, which requires an electron beam solution, as OPC patterns and sub-resolution assist features (SRAF) are smaller than 13.5nm and cannot be detected with actinic EUV light – leading ASML, KLA, and others to develop multi-beam inspection tools for High NA masks that render the ACTIS tool obsolete."
A lot of claims, very little beef. And why should Intel "secretly" use other equipment? Are they a stakeholder in Lasertec? All the allegations are possible, but not convincing, as laid out.
Struggles at Intel. Lasertec’s EUV mask inspection effort is Intel’s baby, which it sponsored with $300-500MM in advances >5 years ago as its “founding” customer after failing to convince KLA. Intel’s mask group is trying to save face and cover up that its investment has been a debacle, giving it supplier prizes for public PR while “blowing up” on Lasertec behind the scenes, according to multiple research sources
Intel currently has issues with marketshare from amd and arm maybe they don't want to post that loss and setback for some targets?
Edit: spelling
I don't know this Japanese company so I don't know in this case.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/bill-ac...