Japan's Most Actively Traded Stock Is a Fraud and Ticking Time Bomb [pdf] | Hacker News Reader

Japan's Most Actively Traded Stock Is a Fraud and Ticking Time Bomb [pdf]

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54 pointsgreenavocado28 comments

> DISCLOSURES ... Scorpion Capital LLC is short Lasertec Corporation

I have no information about either company and take no position on whether the allegations are true. But note that what Scorpion Capital is doing here is a classic play of 1) establishing a short position and then 2) publishing research to convince the market to dump the stock. Of course, this classic play is most effective if they are right.

Again, I know nothing. I just find financial markets interesting.

These short analyses are always in the form of ultra-dense slides. It’s something of an art form.

This one's got an overview of what EUV is starting on page 32. Interesting reading even if you aren't interested in the market play.

You would probably find Hindenburg Research interesting:

Hindenburg Research LLC is a U.S. investment research firm with a focus on activist short-selling… Named after the 1937 Hindenburg disaster, which they characterize as a human-made avoidable disaster, the firm generates public reports via its website that allege corporate fraud and malfeasance.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hindenburg_Research

The GOAT

This is called Trash and Cash, this is a market manipulation https://www.marketconductrules.com/risks/trash-and-cash/

Not necessarily. The target company almost always complains about manipulation, because of course they do. But even Herbalife, a clear pyramid scheme, shouted "we're being manipulated!", when people published research saying they were a pyramid scheme.

I don't know this Japanese company so I don't know in this case.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/bill-ac...

A good example of how the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Just because Herbalife is morally a pyramid scheme doesn’t mean the FTC was going to shut down the company. Herbalife stock went up and Bill Ackman exited his trade at a loss after five years. When Herbalife stock finally crashed last year, Bill Ackman declared victory for his “psychological short”.

Is is still manipulation when what you're publishing is true?

IANAL but if it is not true, you open yourself up to libel.

After a short glimpse, it is hard to tell if the allegations are true.

With other short sellers, the story was easier to understand and verify,e.g. Chinese plane ticket sellers where it turned out basically impossible to buy a plane ticket. I also found the allegations against Wirecard in Hackernews plausible, since such a complex network of companies rarely has legit applications. But Lasertec Corporation, I don't know.

E.g. :"Sources indicate that customers – presumably Intel - who claim to use Lasertec’s EUV tool are secretly using its old DUV system instead; that TSMC is running parallel, redundant inspections with non-EUV tools and has reverted to the DUV-based inspection process it used prior to Lasertec; that the market window for actinic EUV mask inspection is rapidly closing, as the next phase in EUV is High NA, which requires an electron beam solution, as OPC patterns and sub-resolution assist features (SRAF) are smaller than 13.5nm and cannot be detected with actinic EUV light – leading ASML, KLA, and others to develop multi-beam inspection tools for High NA masks that render the ACTIS tool obsolete."

A lot of claims, very little beef. And why should Intel "secretly" use other equipment? Are they a stakeholder in Lasertec? All the allegations are possible, but not convincing, as laid out.

From point 6a:

Struggles at Intel. Lasertec’s EUV mask inspection effort is Intel’s baby, which it sponsored with $300-500MM in advances >5 years ago as its “founding” customer after failing to convince KLA. Intel’s mask group is trying to save face and cover up that its investment has been a debacle, giving it supplier prizes for public PR while “blowing up” on Lasertec behind the scenes, according to multiple research sources

Intel currently has issues with marketshare from amd and arm maybe they don't want to post that loss and setback for some targets?

Edit: spelling

I like this business model, you have to invest a lot of your own money to make a credible report like that, preferably multiple to establish reputation and keep doing that. If the SEC or equivalents don't do that, might as well let private capital hunt down fraud.

I was going to short a few shares just for fun, but TIL that the tokyo stock exchange only lets you trade in multiples of 100 shares (~228 USD per share right now for TYO: 6920 Lasertec Corporation)... https://www.jpx.co.jp/english/equities/improvements/unit/

Looks like the places I have brokerage accounts don’t let me make a trade like this at all after hours.

At $22,800 with unlimited downside if the stock goes up, that's a pretty expensive gamble.

There are many, many ways to construct the trade to limit the downside risk.

That's not true if you buy a single put option (it is 100 shares). If you sell a naked put option you're opening yourself up to unlimited losses potentially. Not to worry, most brokerages won't let you put in such an order unless you file some paperwork attesting to your level of trading experience, often referred to as Level 3 or 4. When you buy a put option, your risk is always limited to the premium paid, and nothing more. The upside is potentially unlimited profit. And I'm not even getting into the dozens of options architectures which optimize for specific trading theses.

Surely some puts are in order?

I wanted to do 3 year puts on Tesla, every 6 months.

I would have done fantastic, but I didn't have the 30k/buy it took to pull off the deal. For the same reason, 100 shares were needed.

Why would it cost you that? December puts on Tesla at $120 trade at $5 right now. You can lose all your stake but no more than that.

it was 3 year puts, you had to buy 100.

What’s the jargon for the reverse of a pump and dump scheme?

Trash and cover your shorts?

Short and Distort

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/shortanddistort.asp

Or if the plan is to get the shares cheaply: Poop and scoop.

I love this term!

That only really applies if the company shorting the stock is lying. Otherwise it's the market working exactly as it is intended.

Trash and Cash https://www.marketconductrules.com/risks/trash-and-cash/

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