Intel themselves claim 45 TOPS (IPC isn't a thing in NPUs) coming from their NPU. AMD didn't reveal the chip total of the new Ryzen series, but their NPU gets 50 TOPS. The only reason Intel's numbers are so much higher ("120 TOPS!") is that Intel included their chip total (what the GP dies can achieve, but at far lower power efficiency) with the NPU numbers, AMD doesn't include this. Presumably their GP cores would be able to achieve similar numbers.

Given that AMDs NPUs were already ~78% more power efficient than Intel's and both are claiming ~50% power efficiency increases, I'm not sure why there would be a big upset here.

Not really defending AMD here, but they have been investing hard into NPUs for about four-five generations now, while Intel only really hopped on the bandwagon last generation. Unless you just believe Intel has the best engineers in the world, period; there's no reason to believe they would close the gap that quickly.