Comment by rimunroe | Hacker News Reader

Comment by rimunroe | Hacker News Reader

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> Remember when it was impossible to talk about the lab leak theory without being labeled? Eventually mainstream media came around, but they did a lot of damage to their credibility.

…but they didn’t. The lab leak theory is still mostly the realm of conspiracy theorists, and is (rightly, imo) treated as such. I’ve seen stories reporting on efforts investigating the lab leak hypothesis, but they’re always about how the study turned up nothing and thus the best evidence continues to point at direct animal -> human transmission.

Occasionally conspiracy theories do turn out to be true, but that’s vanishingly rare next to the number of them which turn out to be false.

> At this point I just don’t trust anything. It’s fortunate to be of a scientific mindset, since you can make up your own mind with some confidence that you’re not crazy. That doesn’t really work for most people, which seems like the main problem you touch on.

Be very careful about this. It’s crucial to think critically and evaluate sources. However, if there’s a theory among domain experts (like epidemiologists or climatologists) which is overwhelmingly believed (Covid didn’t come from a lab) and you believe something which has the reputation of being a conspiracy theory, the odds of you being right don’t look good. Your odds get worse the longer the prevailing theory has been accepted, as in the intervening time the people in the minority will have been searching for convincing support.

The lab leak theory is still mostly the realm of conspiracy theorists

Apparently including the raving nutjobs at the FBI and Department of Energy (https://www.cnn.com/2023/02/28/politics/wray-fbi-covid-origi...).

I did say "mostly" for a reason. A few months after the FBI director made those comments the Director of National Intelligence (who oversees the FBI and the rest of the US intelligence community) released a report reiterating that an animal origin was most likely and that there wasn't evidence of a lab leak. The Wikipedia article[1] on the lab leak theory will summarize it better than I can:

> In February 2023, The Wall Street Journal reported that the US Energy Department, based on new intelligence, had shifted its view from "undecided" to "low confidence" that the pandemic originated with a lab leak. In the intelligence community, "low confidence" means the information is sourced to low-quality or otherwise untrustworthy sources. In the wake of these reports, FBI Director Christopher Wray reiterated the bureau's assessment, saying that the Government of China was doing its best to thwart any investigation. White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan responded to the report saying "some elements of the intelligence community have reached conclusions on one side, some on the other. A number of them have said they just don't have enough information to be sure", and there was still "no definitive answer" to the pandemic origins' question. The reassessment renewed the political debate around the issue in the US.

> In June 2023, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence declassified their report on the virus' origins, in compliance with an Act of Congress compelling it to do so. The report stated that while the lab leak theory could not be ruled out, the overall assessment of the National Intelligence Council and a majority of IC assets (with low confidence) was that the pandemic most likely began as a zoonotic event. No evidence was found that SARS-CoV-2 or a progenitor virus existed in a laboratory, and there was no evidence of any biosafety incident. Proponents of the lab leak hypothesis reacted by accusing the agencies of conspiring with the Chinese, or of being incompetent. Covering the story for the Sydney Morning Herald, its science reporter Liam Mannix wrote that the US report marked the end of the lab leak case, and that it had ended "not with a bang, but a whimper".

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_lab_leak_theory#Intel...

You know we have the government emails vis a vis the lab leak?

Which emails are you referring to? The ones with Fauci in early 2020? If so, they ruled that out as an option within a few months. I can understand being outraged about the suppression of those emails (though I understand why they’d want to do that), but the fact they were suppressed doesn’t have any bearing on the validity of the lab leak theory.

From when? Before or after the investigations that determined it was most likely zoonotic?

https://www.reuters.com/world/no-direct-evidence-covid-19-pa...

You know we have video evidence of the WMDs right? There were reconnaissance photos, elaborate maps and charts, and even taped phone conversations between senior members of Iraq's military.

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