> The odds are against this being an accident.

What makes you think so? Looking for data, I found https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_heads_of_state_and_gov.... It lists 3 helicopter accidents (one of them this year) and one helicopter bombing.

Also, weather in the region apparently isn’t good for safely flying helicopters (FTA: “He said the visibility in the mountainous and wooded area was down to only about five meters.”)

That, to me, doesn’t support a claim “The odds are against this being an accident”. Do you have data that does?