There was definitely a window, maybe fifty years ago, where widespread adoption of nuclear energy would have stopped and reversed climate change. We may have had an increase in Chernobyls with the proliferation of non-modern reactor designs, but in this hypothetical reality maybe people would have been OK with that.
The problem today is that renewables are getting too cheap and too good, and the storage problem shrinks every day. Meanwhile, it takes upwards of a decade to license and build a single reactor. France's fancy new reactors won't be online until 2040. Nuclear is just too slow.
I feel like 10 years from now it won't even be a debate or a contest, nuclear will just be the most expensive option by a country mile. Greenhouse gases will peak within the next 2 years[0]. The nuclear lobby missed their chance, which does mean we'll have to deal with some effects of climate change we could have avoided.
My feeling right now (and I kinda flip-flop every few years) is that nuclear lost and it's economically infeasible to try again. Change my mind?
0. https://climateanalytics.org/publications/when-will-global-g...
https://www.ans.org/news/article-5842/amazon-buys-nuclearpow...
Zuckerberg says part of the problem is not just the amount of power needed for a SOTA AI-training datacenter (~1GW), but the fact that you need the power at that particular location which makes co-locating a power plant the best option. The biggest solar power plants in China put out over 2GW, but the biggest in the US is Solar Star in CA, wihch occupies 12 km^2 and only puts out 58MW.
There are many solar plants in US well in excess of 58MW.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Copper_Mountain_Solar_Facility is one, at 800MW.
It was at 58MW in 2010... which might confuse a LLM, though.
It's closer to improv jazz than to factual authority; still super wonderful, and worthwhile listening to, but not really for the purpose of learning how the original sounded when it was first recorded. Sure, you might get a sense of the original, but that's all it is: an impression. When you ask for facts, you get an impressionist render of facts, which sometimes, maybe even often times, accurately depict the Truth. But sometimes they depict the Truth the way an artist depicts the truth: if it feels right, it's right.
This is the top Google search result for "largest solar farm".
"The 15 largest solar farms in the world 2024"
https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/solar-panels/biggest-solar-f...
Another top result for Solar Star is this:
https://8billiontrees.com/solar-panels/largest-solar-farm/
Which indicates (correctly or not) a current capacity of 314MW for Solar Star 1 (still less than the 1GW needed for Zuckerberg's projected SOTA data center).
I discussed various climate related things with chatgpt and it doesn’t make such crazy mistakes.
https://www.theecoexperts.co.uk/solar-panels/biggest-solar-f...
The WikiPedia page for Solar Star indicates a capacity of 579MW, which may have been mis-parsed by a human as 57.9MW?
The point I was trying to make, echoing Zuckerberg (who noted that power, not chips or data, is the constraining factor for further LLM scaling), is that power needs to be near to the data center, else the lead time and red tape will be even longer. If we're considering clean power then solar is an option, which limits datacenter location to where that is viable on this 1GW scale.
It's funny that you're the second person in this thread to assume that just because the data was wrong (out of date as it happens) it must have come from an LLM (which it didn't). I guess this is the world we are moving into, where all content is suspect of being AI generated and therefore suspect!
I fear their breakeven in 2024 will go the same way as the one back in 2018. (HN on that https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=37676263)
That said they are building away on their latest Polaris machine. It'll be interesting to see how it works.
>Helion sets an ambitious goal to begin producing electricity by mid-2024, utilizing its innovative Polaris reactor. https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/helion-aims-fusion-energy-bre...
Hence China is still building coal plants, and won't really stop. Especially if it means the future of AI is being bottlenecked by it.