>To really stress this: OpenAI's still-present cofounder shared yesterday on a podcast that they expect AGI in ~2 years and ASI (superpassing human intelligence) by end of the decade.
Link? Is the ~2 year timeline a common estimate in the field?
Link? Is the ~2 year timeline a common estimate in the field?
Personally I'm not seeing that the path we're on leads to whatever that is, either. But I think/hope I'll know if I'm wrong when it's in front of me.
> I don't think it's going to happen next year, it's still useful to have the conversation and maybe it's like two or three years instead.
This doesn't seem like a super definite prediction. The "two or three" might have just been a hypothetical.
AI experts who aren't riding the hype train and getting high off of its fumes acknowledge that true AI is something we'll likely not see in our lifetimes.