It’s the first G4 watch, but not the first G4 event. In other words, the prior G4 event was not predicted. It can happen that an event is more significant when it arrives than what was predicted, which is what happened here.

it's a typo, Mar 2024 was a G3, not G4. ref https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39796973 and link in comments there.

[edit] i stand corrected, there was a G4 in march. sibling comment is correct. ref https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/severe-g4-geomagnetic-storms-...