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She will just do it on Instagram reels now. I wish They were banning all short format video platforms and black box algorithmic suggestions. But obviously they aren't.

Sounds like she's the problem, not TikTok.

...but is that among the likely outcomes of this?

If she is so zombified by TikTok, won't she just continue to use it? Why would she comply with the ban?

Moreover, even if she does, there are many other nearly identical sources of zombification. Won't she use fall prey to those instead?

exactly. Nothing changes if TikTok is sold, and even if it ends up banned in the US, she would be zombified by Instagram or whatever else people flock to

Yeah - interpreting this as a "People can't use tiktok anymore" bill is wrong. It's a "Bytedance can't own tiktok" bill.

All the analysts I've seen discussing this have stated that "China is highly unlikely to allow this", so it is being treated as effectively a ban.

...but even if Bytedance turns their nose up at this (which they won't, because they want to be in good imperial standing), why would users care?

They'll take 20 seconds to install one app to route around the ban, and then forget about it.

Much better to do it on HN instead.