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Comment by tomelders | Hacker News Reader

I'm going to say no. I really don't see Facebook being around in 30 years. I'd be surprised if they're not marginalised in 10 years. And other than Facebook, I'm not sure what Zuckerberg has to offer the world.

If you want to know why: It's because I personally believe the future of social networks is to niche, with disparate social networks connected via a Distributed Social Networking Protocol. Your social network account will be more like your email account. I think Facebook will find itself on the wrong side of history when that battle starts by trying to lock down it's data and lock people into Facebook.

That's just my belief and I'm open to the possibility that it could be completely wrong, so don't go crazy with the down votes.

But if we're just talking about the next 12 to 24 months, then, oh yes, of course he will.

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There's certainly a lot of truth here. However, Mark Zuckerberg built the company to last. So I think it's unlikely that it will completely be marginalized.

Regarding the Zuck = Jobs. Absolutely not. Yes, they are both product people. But Mark Zuckerberg does not have the same aura or doesn't necessarily have the same depth of intellectuality that Jobs (college dropout or not) had. When I see Mark Zuckerberg, I think more of the Bill Gates or our time than an artistic genius with deep root in counter-culture lifestyle.

I disagree. Not that I think Zuck = Jobs, but I disagree with the "absolutely not" portion. I mean, Jobs post-NeXT is not the same person as pre-NeXT Jobs. From what I've read, Zuckerberg at this IPO is a very different person from the Zuckerberg at the early years of Facebook and I don't think his growth is stopping here. I don't think it's fair to be comparing these two figures at this point.

Bill Gates has got a lot of technology insight and vision. What's Mark's vision? Connecting people in a world where people are already connected?

Bill's vision was: a computer on every desk. When he was saying this, this was very bold.

" Mark Zuckerberg built the company to last. So I think it's unlikely that it will completely be marginalized."

Really great point. I love the reasoning you give to back up your arbitrary statements.

He lacks the intellectual depth.

I'm a massive proponent of the Distributed Social Networking Protocol concept, but since Diaspora tanked no one else seems to be picking up the mantle and Google/Yahoo/Microsoft don't look like they're going to roll out anything resembling an open SN protocol any time soon I wonder if it will ever happen.

The road to Facebook is paved with the empty user tables of dead social networks. I wouldn't give up hope just yet.

"The Global Square", "WLFriends" are possible candidates along with Diaspora.

I personally believe the future of social networks is to niche, with disparate social networks connected via a Distributed Social Networking Protocol.

This sounds a lot like the subreddit system.

I've been hoping for such a platform to emerge - it would be better than having a single platform that everyone uses. People could switch between SN providers (like email providers) easily, with migration capabilities offered via APIs, and then there would be room for SNs to compete for fairly and for smaller, better players to emerge more easily.

Please make it happen, someone. No doubt a lot of people dislike being locked into long-term contracts with service providers, be they cellphone, cable, email or social networking services.

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