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Comment by dralley | Hacker News Reader

Sanctions do work, but anyone claiming that they would single handedly crush the Russian economy in a matter of months were delusional, especially due to all of the avoidance going on through Turkey and Kazakhstan.

Nonetheless, it does add a lot of friction that slowly grinds away at the economy.

For example:

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-arctic-l...

https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russia-sp...

Russia can't sustain autarky on their own, and especially not with their demographics, manpower shortages due to the war, wartime spending, and corruption. Right now they're coasting on what's left of their reserves, but those are finite. Their economy won't outright collapse but it will get more and more inefficient and fragile.

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yet the sanctions are doing little to change the outcome in the battlefield

Russia is clearing pulling out ahead and its delusional to think that Ukraine even had a chance to begin with

Quantity always wins over quality.

>Russia can't sustain autarky on their own, and especially not with their demographics

Do you think Ukraine's demographics are doing any better?

I live in western Europe and every day I hear Ukrainian on the streets . Wherever you go in Europe, Germany, Luxembourg, Ireland, etc. it's full of Ukrainians (mostly women and youngsters). How do you think Ukraine's chances of success look like when all their women and youngsters are living abroad? Those are you future and they're not where they're needed most but building up other countries future and economies.

Ukraine is dying the slow death. If Russia doesn't do it, their demographics will. Even if they "win", the victory gained will be bombed out land hosting mostly scarred men and elderly pensioners. How is that a victory?

> Do you think Ukraine's demographics are doing any better?

How is that relevant to the discussion? I only brought it up in the context of Russia not being able to compensate for sanctions with their internal economic output.

It's relevant to your comment I replied to because you brought up demographics as being not in Russia's favor.

In a very specific context which your comment does not acknowledge.

Especially when your leaders, elites telling economically disenfranchised Ukranian men to a meat grinder while they themselves live abroad and have acquired German citizenship

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