The only good guarantee is that you can turn an opposing nation into ash. Libya got bombed by NATO shortly after giving up their nuclear program despite them trying to reconcile ties to western nations.
Not even North Korea does that kind of shit. Reconciling was a pipe dream.
But this shoot down had so much going on, it was for all intents and purposes, intentional. The level of aggression shown by that captain, the violations of territorial waters ans deviations from standard practice. He attacked everything that moved and the climate in which his behaviour was tolerated is also a factor. He wanted to shoot a plane down. His colleagues had given him a nickname and his superiors had concerns about the recklessness.
The final settlements reflects the indefensible behaviour.
How is NATO working out at the moment with war at its doorstep and a series of threats, provocations and violations? I don’t see any sign that NATO is winning.
I am not sure what NATO should be winning. We are not currently, formally at war, so to me that seems like winning enough. If NATO is not winning, then who is?