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Comment by dmix | Hacker News Reader

It wouldn't be surprising if the CIA knows or suspects as much but they are protecting some other, possible long held, classified tech. That is usually the priority and given it was gov workers/families then it may have been deemed worth keeping it quiet.

Otherwise there's little incentive to not find another reason to go after Russia.

Hell, Russia just brutally killed a traitor in Spain and did the opposite of trying to hide who did it. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/31/world/europe/russian-defe...

I'm curious what Spain will take any real consequences or it will just be some marginal outrage like in Canada w/ the Indian gov hit job, then just kind of falling out of the news cycle and everyone forgets.

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From a realpolitik perspective, you have to ask what Spain has to gain from kicking up a fuss here. It’s not like any Spaniard is at risk here, nor does Spain promote itself as a major military power with the means and will of projecting power.

Compare this to the Salisbury poisonings, where a bunch of Brits got caught up, the target was an intelligence asset, and standing up to Russia plays very well with the electorate… there was a coordinated, significant, non-military response across several allies

>there was a coordinated, significant, non-military response across several allies

>significant

I wonder too. Allied stern words?

Very significant, Russia-linked donors had to increase donations to the Conservative Party

https://goodlawproject.org/revealed-the-tories-are-still-rec...

Suspension of all high-level diplomatic contact UK/Russia, UK law changed to make it easier to confiscate Russian assets, 23 diplomats expelled from UK, 60 from the US + consulate closure, 33 from wider EU, 27 from other allies (in total ~150 constituting “the largest collective expulsion of Russian intelligence officers in history”), Russian banks sanctioned under the US CBW act (although Trump didn’t implement them), and personal sanctions against assets of GRU leaders.

What would you have considered to be a significant and proportionate non-military response?

Yet UK is one of the main destinations for Russian capital to this day. Sanctions were a joke prior to 2022 and even after 2022 they still are.

What are you suggesting a better response would have been?

I live 30 km away from a Belarussian border (so, for all intents and purposes Russian), so I am biased towards extreme measures, as Russia historically does not respond to anything else.

However, after multiple UK citizens were harmed on UK soil calling that response "significant" anything is frankly a joke.

OK. What would a significant, proportionate, and non-military response have been?

You said there was significant response, I have commented on that to say that response has been anything but.

As I already said, personally I am afraid that we're beyond the point where any non-military response would be proportionate, but that is not what my initial comment was about.

If it's microwave weapons, I can't imagine the SIGINT stations certainly present in the embassies don't know a lot about it.

Like Saddam and Gaddafi for oil and feeding the military industrial complex. Sure Russia all the way

Oil isn't worth invasions anymore. We have shale oil in the Bakken, and EVs / alt energy / decarbonization will make it much less important.

Think about if you'd fund a major new oil project. Most don't get going for 5-10 years, meanwhile there is an army of investment and forthcoming techs in EV batteries and perovskites in solar.

A war is big money. Yeah, it's not the shadow corporation's money, but the Washington people do some math too, it will bring temporary high gas prices and war isn't popular. It's why all the "invade Iran!!!" stories have fallen flat in the last 4-5 years, they get laughed out of the building.

We’ve been a net exporter of oil since the 1970s, but global oil price is massively important. Think of how much is made and transported using petroleum.

Your argument is missing how important oil price stability is to fuel consumer and industrial consumption.

you don't seem to remember the whole african gold dinar thing, right?

I get it. The petrol dollar is the basis of global currency and trade and has been longer than we've been alive.

When the value of oil collapses, and it will collapse: when not if, what replaced that? Batteries?

In the near future it is likely that sodium and sulfur will be the fundamental ingredients of a battery 2x the density of todays. So there won't be nickel, cobalt or even lithium holding up EV scaling.

Solar and wind isn't a shippable substance. Perovskites solar panels will likely be manufacturable practically anywhere.

Energy/oil being intimately tied with economic and economic output made for a stable cross-cultural currency.

Likely we will simply move back to food.

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