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I wonder how many of those will actually be served... one way or the other.

Federal prisoners serve an average of 85% of their sentence. One year gets you 54 days "good conduct time" and that's about it. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Good_conduct_time

Wouldn't that make 85% the minimum, not the average?

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-bri... says 2012's average was 88%, so the two are quite close. I don't know how much it varies from year to year, but it would seem most are earning their good behavior time.