> A more likely outcome is that Facebook uses their assets – a vast number of extremely engaged users, it’s social graph, Facebook Connect –to monetize through another business model. If they do that, the company is probably worth a lot more than the expected $100B IPO valuation. If they don’t, it’s probably worth a lot less.
So long Facebook is a "nice-to-have" business models around paying for access or privacy are dead on arrival, users will just leave or go elsewhere. However if Facebook becomes a "must-have" in order to participate in society, then people will do whatever it takes. If Facebook is becoming an infrastructure provider then they have every incentive to encourage a rich ecosystem and businesses will pay for access, even consumers perhaps might. The comparison that comes back to me is the early phone system from 100 years ago. It was a "nice-to-have" to have a phone number. But phone companies invested in infrastructure and interoperability and lots of third party applications emerged that got deeply embedded into societal life. Thereby the telephone became a "must-have". Facebook today seems to have a similar opportunity in front of it. If they realize and leverage it, it could be huge.