How much of this is from actual increase in the disease, and how much is from earlier and more sensitive detection?
This diagram: https://bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/bmjonc/2/1/e000049/F1.la...
Shows about 800K deaths in 1990 vs 1M deaths in 2019. That's 25% at best--or less when adjusted for population growth.
And the proportions stayed roughly the same.
That would strongly suggest that the increase is mostly detection.
However, I think that is about to change. Rapidly.
I see biomed as broken into 3 eras much like any technical field--alchemy, science, and then engineering.
The invention of PCR in 1984 is when biomed changed from being alchemy to being an actual science. The application of mRNA heralds the start of the era where biomed is switching to having progress from engineering rather than just science and some serendipitous luck.
And once something switches to being engineering, it can be accelerated by education and money.
I believe you're correct. But I also believe such a shift will likely come witb unintended consequences. What might those be?
Note: nuclear fusion is similar. That is, loads of cheap clean energy is certainly a victory but there are also massive geopolitical and financial systems unintended consequences. It's not all rainbows and unicorns
Introduction: "Currently, it was reported that the promotion of cancer screening strategies and the exposure to risk factors in early life or young adulthood may increase incidence of early-onset cancer... Furthermore, changes in diet, lifestyle and environment since the turn of the 20th century, resulting in increased rates of obesity, physical inactivity, westernised diets and environmental pollution, may have affected the incidence of early-onset cancer. Additionally, alcohol, smoking and detrimental pregnancy exposures may have also affected the incidence of early-onset cancer"
Conclusion: "Our study showed that the global morbidity of early-onset cancer increased from 1990 to 2019, while mortality and DALYs slightly decreased."
Note: I personally believe it probably has but such an opinion is not science.