Hacker News Reader

Comment by YetAnotherNick | Hacker News Reader

There's no reason for OpenAI to release the model. They have close to 100% market anyways and releasing GPT-5 likely won't increase the total market as it is a incremental leap. And it's a open secret that most other models used GPT-4 synthetic data for training to come close to it.

They would likely wait till any model performs better than GPT 4 for the same price

View on HN

The same reasoning would have applied for GPT-3.5. In the hindsight, you can say that it was obviously a good idea to build and ship GPT4. But hindsight is 20/20.

There are few differences. Firstly, GPT-3.5 wasn't ahead of Palm etc. from Google which was published at the same time as GPT-4.

Secondly, GPT-4 increased overall AI market. According to all the sources, interviews and leaks, GPT-5 won't be a big leap over GPT-4 as the model size and training data won't be significantly larger. I doubt GPT-5 would do that. (I could be wrong in my assumption though that GPT-5 would just be a incremental gain).

By any chance did you used to work in leadership at Nokia or Research in Motion? :-D

Nokia wasn't that ahead in technology and Motion wasn't that ahead in market. GPT-4 is ahead in both.

There is reason to release new models if said models would be capable of grabbing a significant portion of job market currently occupied by humans.

100%?

Claude 3 Opus is in the capability ballpark of GPT-4, GPT-3.5 has alternatives that are cheaper (Claude 3 Haiku) or cheaper and work offline (Qwen 1.5, Mixtral, …).

100% market share.

A competitor will likely need to be 10x better than ChatGPT in order to get significant market share, not just marginally better in certain scenarios.

Is Claude 3 Opus generating more profits and taking considerable amount of customers from OpenAI? I'm not seeing that yet. Granted, I'm in Europe (outside of EU) so I can't pay for Opus but I guess that kinda confirms my statement. GPT4 is still a good product and there are no market pressures to release GPT5.

Reply on news.ycombinator.com