First, despite the simplification of the cables, physically connecting it can still be a challenge, for example if there's no convenient place to put a laptop within 6' of the TV. And power for the laptop there too.
Second, once its connected, it's no certainty that the external display will be correctly detected or set to the correct resolution. Is the picture streched? When you hit full-screen, does it only show on the laptop? Is sound going over HDMI too? Tinkering with settings and troubleshooting a multi-monitor setup can be intimidating for the "average consumer".
Even if you get everything setup, many laptops do no come with remote controls, and long HDMI cables are uncommon.
I've owned or own a Roku, a TV which had USB and could play anything FFMPEG could read, a PS3 with netflix and recently an AppleTV+iPad.
I'd consider myself reasonably technically inclined and have had an HDMI cable which comfortably reached my couch for quite awhile but I still use that as a last resort for content I can't play some other way.
I also have a Google TV with the Plex app, which is great except my laptops aren't quite fast enough to stream 1080p over wifi (and even 720p can sometimes have buffering problems too). Plex is pretty simple as far as these kinds of things go, but even with Plex I can absolutely imagine the average consumer having trouble, or just being too intimidated to even try to set it up ("I have to run a "server" on my computer? What the hell is that?")
Anyway, my basic point is that there's really nothing as smooth and simple, even for people like us who have no trouble setting up a media server, as it was in the "old days" where you can pick up the remote and be watching what you want to watch within 10 seconds.
I toyed around with Boxee for Mac on a dedicated old laptop and it was really close -- crashed too much, but if it didn't, it would be fine for a lot of consumers -- though not nearly as good as AppleTV. The advantage over AppleTV is the enormous amount of content.