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Comment by AnimalMuppet | Hacker News Reader

Well, we went through pains going from 1st to 2nd and 2nd to 3rd, too. It wasn't smooth. This won't be, either.

The question is, is there something more or less stable at the end of the transition? Are there enough 4th level jobs for the people that can make the switch, and are there enough 1st, 2nd, and 3rd level jobs for the people who can't move up to 4th? Or is there no smooth road after all the bumps of the transition?

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Is there a 4th level? The 3rd is supposed to be the top - knowledge based economy focused on providing services rather than resources or manufacturing. That's why it seems once you're in a 3rd level economy, there's not other massive jump. It's all efficiency gains or shifting to other problem areas. Then you add in the other economies that are moving up to 3rd level and it seems there's an oversupply at that level where not locally confined such as a plumber.

> Or is there [or is there not a] no smooth road after all the bumps of the transition?

That's the trillion dollar question

It doesn't look good to me. I'm not sure what I should be preparing my kids to do for work in a couple decades from now. It can't look that much different than today, but I still can't imagine what the good jobs with long futures might be. I make fun of the surveys that say Gen Z want to be influencers and stuff, but that's probably just as realistic as believing they can build a software career building CRUD apps that could last until 2060.

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