With feature flags and epochs, it is possible to evolve C++ in the right direction with the minimum of friction and make it opt-in in a consistent fashion. Circle already proves this a feasible approach, and that's a one-man project. There's also clang tooling that modernizes old C++, and huge amounts of work on LSPs and the like for refactoring, so it is possible to provide tooling that mechanically fixes-up a large portion of old code.
All of the alternatives you (and I) mention - Carbon, Cppfront, Circle, aren't really fragmentation. They're all experiments at the moment, and all useful in testing out ideas in various different independent directions.
The only comment I'll make about Rust, is that it's going to do a C++, and inspire another generation of languages (e.g. Hylo) that will takes lessons from it and improve - perhaps a nicer syntax, or better type inference and generics, or more formal proofs baked into the language. It's not an end-point.
Can C++ be truly safe? I don't know, to me it seems totally at odds with where the language started, choices made and baked into the language, and where the very broad community and committee currently are.
Regarding successor languages, I fail to see how they are innovating though. Their sales pitch as far as I know, boils down to "Look Ma we have Rust at home". Which I don't find very compelling.
Did TypeScript, Flow, Closure, Elm, ReScript sink the effort for safer JS?
(None of these looking to make Java safer per se, but rather more usable/less verbose.)