People who say things like "major breakthroughs" often imagine a cliff/steep rise. The reality is that most "breakthroughs" are small, incremental, almost invisible steps in all aspects of the field, and potentially even in fields that are only tangentially related.

Then, one day, they hear about it in the news, because there's now some hype, or some event that makes it newsworthy. This makes it feel like the breakthrough was instantaneous or steep, but in fact has been in the making for decades or even more.

I have no doubt AGI is coming, but it will be gradual and slow. It will be the accumulation of more advances in everything, including hardware, as well as software. It might even include economic changes.