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As the old saying goes, the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay liquid. So shorting a clearly overvalued stock can be a dangerous move.

Oops. We posted that at the same time.

Short Nvidia only if you hedge with some call options. Or other financial instrument that mitigates your losses.

In a world where seed and A stage AI startups are getting $100mm rounds and half that money's going to NVIDIA ... eh it's probably not too overvalued. I think there's more oomph left in the bubble.

When the valuation is something like "it looks like it's assuming they'll continue to sell $X billion a year" it can be reasonablish.

When the valuation requires "they will continue to grow sales X% a year" is when it quickly becomes impossible, and for a much smaller X than you might realize.

Even if you do think AI is a bubble, Nvidia's capacity is completely booked for a few years or so if I'm not mistaken. And that's with huge margins.

the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.