Aswath Damodaran's Nvidia analsysis: Assuming 32% CAGR rate of over 5 years with 40% target operating margin at the end of period Nvidia is now 40% overvalued. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2024/02/the-seven-samur...
When the valuation requires "they will continue to grow sales X% a year" is when it quickly becomes impossible, and for a much smaller X than you might realize.
Short Nvidia only if you hedge with some call options. Or other financial instrument that mitigates your losses.
Well, it looks like he lost a lot of money
Taking money off the table when it is enough for you is the way you guarantee that you make any money...
better to risk it going down from $450 to $400 before selling than to miss out on the ride to $800
Failure to maximize returns is not losing money.
>Ever since Amazon was in its early days, he has said that Amazon was overvalued and he has always been wrong because Amazon has always found new verticals to build and create more value with.
Amazon has been overvalued multiple times.
Amazon stock had negative return 10 years between 1999 - 2009.
Jan 5, 1999 to Dec 28, 2009, AMZN had an 8.9% annual return.
Jan 5, 1999 to Dec 28, 2008 was -0.52% annual return.
Jan 5, 2000 to Dec 28, 2009 was 6.88% annual return.
But why give a crap about returns during a specific 10 year period? Almost nobody is buying something today to liquidate all of it at a single point in time in the future.
It did not. You will have to cherry pick very specific days in this time frame (top of the dot com bubble and bottom of the GFC) to get negative returns. But how about 1998-2008 or 2000-2010?
Here is how $10K invested in AMZN performed in 10 years [1]:
1998 - 2008 $102,134
1999 - 2009 $25,124
2000 - 2010 $23,625
2001 - 2011 $111,229
[1] https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&s...
To say it is clueless would be too nice.