Kinda dumb that I didn't pour every bit of cash to their stock when chatgpt was released... it was kinda obvious... but so it goes.
I was aware that ChatGPT was a gamechanger when it was released. I was also aware that Nvidia was the only one making the hardware.
But I'm just not the type to immediately jump to "How can I best profit from this?" Rather than researching stocks, I researched transformers more.
You could honestly make a hedge fund by listening to me pontificate things and then betting opposite of me. I have been bearish on MS, twitter, dropbox, bitcoin, the list goes on. It's admirable how I am so consistently wrong.
Same thing with BTC. I tried to buy 20,000 in 2010. Was too much hassle back then so I gave up. But even if I went through with it. I would have sold the moment I turned $20 in $200. Much less hold past $500 or $1000.
From what I understand, if someone made an ASIC for LLM inference, such a device would effectively have the specific model locked in. You wouldn't be able to update the ASIC for newer versions of the model that alter the architecture. At best, you might be able to make one that allows you to update the weights.
I'm also not sure how cheaply you could produce such an ASIC. One that runs a 7B parameter model probably wouldn't be too expensive, but something that could rival GPT-4 would be.
I am no expert but it sure seems like Groq might be on to something with their LPU (language processing unit).
The fact that OpenAI valuation raises was very understandable (but not easy to invest in practice + the corporate structure is shady).
However, Nvidia, it's a very optimistic hype, as the cards are very likely to get replaced with more specialized AI chips in the near-term.
Probably by Apple first, then whoever wakes up.
Also, once you built your big datacenter with all these cards, then you don't renew them every year.
market reacts rationally - just not your brand of rational.