If your thesis is that world manufacturing is leaving China to return (primarily) to the US that seems unlikely. More likely it will move to places like Africa and South America, no? We would expect that to happen as China economy transitions and they become the dominant world super power.
No. Africa and South America largely lack in basic infrastructure, political stability, and workforce education. You can't do advanced modern manufacturing in places like that. Brazil has some promise, and maybe Nigeria and Chile, but that's about it. Brazil still has major stability problems, not sure about the others.
That's not evident in the persistent high youth unemployment rate. There is also something called middle income trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap
> they become the dominant world super power.
There's no sign that that is guaranteed. No sign in culture power. No sign in economic power. No sign in demographics power. No sign in innovation power. No sign in technology power. No sign in military power.
They're on course to become the biggest economy in the world. Popularity of their culture is surging (though from a very low baseline) - you hear a lot more about Chinese movies/novels/games, or even software, than even a couple of years ago. Innovation and technology are hard to measure, but on measures like scientific papers published or patents registered they're also surging. There's plenty to criticise about the Chinese government and Chinese culture, but there are definitely significant signs of success.
They are not:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/us-extend...
> Popularity of their culture is surging
Not as popular as Korean or Japanese, or arguably Indian.
> but there are definitely significant signs of success.
This is true. The very fact that China is considered a super power shows that they have made tremendous progress.