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Comment by berserk1010 | Hacker News Reader

Most Chinese factories in 2023, due to way less orders and needing to clear out their over inventory, had to cut their margins dramatically. thus, more shipped out, but making way less. They won't be able to do that in 2024, with factory shutdowns due to no margins and no more inventory. and that's why:

- Chinese stock market has dropped 11% this year, with 3 year cumulative loss of 6 trillion in 3 years https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/23/investing/china-stock-market-...

- Chinese economy is suffering from deflation

- China’s youth unemployment rate hit consecutive record highs in recent months. From April to June, the jobless rate for 16- to 24-year-olds reached 20.4%, 20.8% and 21.3% respectively

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Why focus on youth employment? Not that I disagree China economy is the toilet. But I do think they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker.

If your thesis is that world manufacturing is leaving China to return (primarily) to the US that seems unlikely. More likely it will move to places like Africa and South America, no? We would expect that to happen as China economy transitions and they become the dominant world super power.

>More likely it will move to places like Africa and South America, no?

No. Africa and South America largely lack in basic infrastructure, political stability, and workforce education. You can't do advanced modern manufacturing in places like that. Brazil has some promise, and maybe Nigeria and Chile, but that's about it. Brazil still has major stability problems, not sure about the others.

> they have a more nimble economy that can turn around quicker

That's not evident in the persistent high youth unemployment rate. There is also something called middle income trap https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Middle_income_trap

> they become the dominant world super power.

There's no sign that that is guaranteed. No sign in culture power. No sign in economic power. No sign in demographics power. No sign in innovation power. No sign in technology power. No sign in military power.

> There's no sign that that is guaranteed. No sign in culture power. No sign in economic power. No sign in demographics power. No sign in innovation power. No sign in technology power. No sign in military power.

They're on course to become the biggest economy in the world. Popularity of their culture is surging (though from a very low baseline) - you hear a lot more about Chinese movies/novels/games, or even software, than even a couple of years ago. Innovation and technology are hard to measure, but on measures like scientific papers published or patents registered they're also surging. There's plenty to criticise about the Chinese government and Chinese culture, but there are definitely significant signs of success.

> They're on course to become the biggest economy in the world

They are not:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/us-extend...

> Popularity of their culture is surging

Not as popular as Korean or Japanese, or arguably Indian.

> but there are definitely significant signs of success.

This is true. The very fact that China is considered a super power shows that they have made tremendous progress.

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