I’m not advocating high rates as good for the poor; I’m championing shaping the yield curve with a market mechanism. It might be too late for that to be anything other than disastrous though, after years of addiction to funny money.
I’m not advocating high rates as good for the poor; I’m championing shaping the yield curve with a market mechanism. It might be too late for that to be anything other than disastrous though, after years of addiction to funny money.
There is an official policy that prices will go up exponentially, controlled by a tiny committee who implements the policy by, effectively, money printing. The official justification is a just-so story with no compelling evidence that I've ever seen. We seem to have gotten there because politicians don't like sound management any more than anyone else and just borrow and spend until the money runs out. And the outcome is asset owners get an enormous leg up over everyone else and the biggest asset owners get privileged.
Given the level of this-sounds-crazy in the policy mix there should be much better justifications for all this policy than people accept. We should routinely be seeing actual studies by real economists justifying this madness. It looks like trash policy.
There are a couple of metrics that I'd accept as a goal for the economy. Maximising median leisure time, maximising wealth creation, maximising payoff for working hard, minimising waste. Something like that or any reasonable combination. I don't think exponentially increasing the prices of goods and services helps with any of those. As far as I can tell it just transfers wealth to asset owners. Which is nice enough if you are an asset owner but it seems arbitrary, unfair and pointless to me. I propose alternative strategies of asset owners have to rely on the value of the asset to make money, rather than waiting for handouts.
I own enough assets that this policy probably benefits me. But it also appears to be causing terrible damage to the community and general faith in capitalism so I expect there will be a nasty backlash at some point that will outweigh the short term benefits. I can't buy stuff if people don't see a benefit in making it.
I think you mean to say imply that wages don't increase, so relatively speaking wage-earners are poorer if assets become more expensive and wages don't rise?
The counterpoint is: Wages are at level X1 relative to price level Y1 because labor can demand these wages. If the price level rises to cY1, there is no reason to think wages won't rise to cX1, so the ratio stays the same?
Who got poorer?
New wealth is being created all the time by the fusion of labour and capital. There is a bit of a balance of how it is distributed - most of it goes to capitalists and some of it goes to labourers (labour labours, spends what they feel is necessary then buys capital with the rest. Over time they become wealthy capitalists too and we all get to be rich. In theory, a lot of people just waste the opportunity even under the best of conditions :[ ).
Over a long enough time frame money printing does nothing, but in the short term there is an effect where the first people to get the money benefit from distortions where they get more short term economic power (in the US typically bondholders, I suspect there are also programs of interference in stocks [0] although that is more of a theory).
I argue that when new capital is created, under a free market more of it should be going to people who draw wages. If I was right, I'd expect symptoms under the current system like people struggling to save, struggling to afford homes, etc, moreso than in the past. People being unable to transition smoothly from being labourers to capitalists and the middle class slowly shrinking.
The way the accounting identities shake out, I'd expect to see exponential increases in every price and valuation but consumables would rise slightly faster than wages and it'd become less and less effective to people relying on their labour to save.
* Part 2
But there are also secondary effects - because now "being an asset owner" is unfairly rewarded, people start creating fake assets in the hope of getting in front of the money hose [1]. That leads to misallocation of capital which IMO is likely to lead to major losses. If capitalists are incentivesed to own assets in the abstract rather than own assets that are actually productive then eventually the system has to recognise big losses because allocations aren't performing.
To give a specific example of that, if you happen to own gold the market is signalling that you have been making consistent "real" (ie, in excess of CPI) returns for something like 20 years. That is obvious bunk, gold is a dead asset that does nothing - the real price might jump up and down a bit in a band, but it doesn't climb steadily at that rate. I'm being asked to pretend I'm getting wealthier each year through my gold holdings, and a lot of people aren't switched on enough to realise that is a fake signal. The market is encouraging unproductive allocations because the metrics are being cooked. And the metrics are being cooked [2] likely on purpose - because it is in the interests of nobody powerful to stop printing money and let labour draw a bigger share of the wealth. Good metrics would suggest that as the obvious thing to do.
> Who got poorer?
Anyone who earns by them working. Especially people who try to retire.
The long story short here is the economic system is overly rewarding people who own assets, encouraging people to invest in bad assets and none of monkeying around with price levels is helpful. It just makes it harder to figure out what is going on.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Mar...
[1] I'm basically in on this, I don't mind too much about whether my investments actually have good fundamentals because I'm looking to get in on the money printing. It has worked out great for me if you believe the CPI is important. Acceptable after doing normalisation against the M2.
[2] Totally different topic that I'm only alluding to here. Economics favours long blog posts or books, HN isn't really wordy enough to have a satisfying argument.
Any excuse is good to raise the price if some people really need your product and it doesn't jeopardise your demand enough. (This is called demand inelasticity.)
No price fall is needed or done when the excuse goes away.
If you control supply side sufficiently, you can also use that to further raise prices and keep them high. Thus equilibrium economics efficiency arguments fail.
Housing has limited but highly inelastic demand. So does food, water, healthcare, energy, fuel. Some of these cannot be substituted easily either.
And the smarter capitalist to get maximum profit will do anything to make this demand yet more inelastic by reducing choices, especially away from their control. Be it by monopoly, cartel, tacit cartel, hostile takeovers, PR to bury options, government intervention, over or underregulation...
Assets are liabilities unless they're directly in demand or are actively capital (as in used to make things). For example, having houses nobody can buy that will disintegrate is a liability. It's even clearer with office buildings which are a bit more elastic in demand. Unless you control most housing and can thus enhance relative demand, of course...
The justifications for current capitalism are very vacuous based on willing misinterpretation of it. Even ignoring the whole monetarist view which is a second order misinterpretation.
This is the primary cause of the poor getting poorer. Greed has nothing to do with it. Greed is linear. O(n). Inflation compounds. O(e^n).
Greed is unbound, if it is really greed. And it’s exponential, if it simply means ambitious and wise use of resources.
I would ditch the psychology economic babble.
There is certainly a case to be made that increasing employment by expanding the money supply is an addictive short term fix paid for with predictable long term damage to the purchasing power of existing laborers.
Inflation leaves valuable assets just as valuable, but undermines fixed or sticky income streams.
For people that might argue with this statement, I’d highly suggest reading the book The Panic of 1907.
And if you’re wondering I’m bringing up a book about 1907 instead of 1929, then that should lead you to go read the book.
"In 1907 there was a financial crisis. We learned our lessons and created an institution to prevent the next crisis. So, the next time things went south in finance, in 1929 there was no crisis. There was a catastrophe instead."
Prior to these changes, bank runs and financial crises occurred about every twenty to thirty years. By contrast there were none until the 1980s S&L crisis following…major deregulation of the financial sector.
Many provisions of Glass-Steagall were repealed by late 1999. Less than ten years later, risky investments using consumer monies mostly in the form of real estate mortgage-backed securities imploded.
Deregulation of the financial sector often brings short term windfalls with near term crises and catastrophes.
When folks trot out the old "government is the problem" canard, I can't help but point out the economic arsons working on Wall Street and/or owning huge buildings in the middle of downtown financial districts. The government sometimes f's things up due to bureaucracy and ineptitude. The financial sector always f's things up because risk means nothing to them when it's someone else's money and they get their bonuses either way.
One makes infuriating mistakes. The other doesn't make mistakes; only self-interested sabotage. I consider the latter a greater evil frankly.
That isn't in itself a bad thing. There needs to be a mechanism to punish people who give their money to charlatans and to reign in malinvestment. If there aren't occasional bank runs then that suggests an excessively cautious investment environment that is destroying potential wealth. Or a lot off government bailouts to cover excessive risk.
As you point out in a few lines with the "risk means nothing to them" comment, a situation has been set up where only the government cares about whether the risk profile being taken on is appropriate. Bankers don't care because it isn't their money, depositors don't care because it isn't their problem. That is a very poor outcome, everyone should care about that. People are presently empowering incompetents by flooding money into stupid ventures and they get no feedback about the damage they are doing.
Mass voting once every few years combined with committees of professional bureaucrats is an ineffective way of doing risk assessment. This has to be something that people work out with their bankers on an ongoing basis. The US would look completely different and probably a lot better to live in if these incentives were corrected.
It is interesting that in the crypto space a group of people have gotten so sick of this that they're going and making their own financial system (with hookers and blackjack, one suspects). It is a really interesting ongoing experiment because if the situation plays out in the obvious way, we're going to see a much healthier system in crypto. We've already seen any number of frauds cleaned out that'd probably have gotten away with it in traditional finance. And the way Tether eventually explodes will be a really interesting case study.
Crypto will not stop this. Crypto has no intrinsic value. A car has intrinsic value. A house has intrinsic value. Farmland has intrinsic value.
If everyone decided all these things had zero currency value, you can still transport using the car. You can still keep the rain out in a house. Crypto leaves you with electron patterns in a box.
When the US dollar has dipped (and gold has gotten stronger), has the measured value of any crypto "currency" increased proportionally? No. Often it dips along with the dollar. When folks feel the crunch, they sell their crypto to pay bills. The reduced demand lowers the value of crypto. When the dollar is strongest and employment is robust, folks buy more crypto with their increased disposable income, raising demand and proportionally the price.
It's a Ponzi scheme. A Ponzi scheme with a much higher fraudster-to-legit ratio than other financial options. There ain't no FDIC for Bitcoin. Be prepared for crypto's 1929 moment.
And you say "lost their life savings" as though the current system doesn't do that. Anyone who has attempted to hold their life savings in a bank is being gently wiped out by inflation. We traded "might happen" for "government policy that this will happen". They're losing most of the value in their cash every 25 years. The official policies are consistently inflation combined with low interest rates.
> Be prepared for crypto's 1929 moment.
Hasn't it has already lost 80% of its value more than once? I'd hope people are prepared with a history like that.
You literally just described everyone who has a bank account. The finance sector is anything but transparent. See: Bear Sterns.
> I'd hope people are prepared with a history like that.
People play the lottery. Humans are REALLY bad at probability. There's an argument that the human brain itself is bad at it. Human perception is the source of optical illusions, sleight of hand, logical fallacies, etc. We are not biologically primed to handle these kinds of problems.
Snake on the ground is a threat? Excellent. Monty Hall Problem? Even after explaining it, a majority of folks still reject the solution because it isn't naturally intuitive.
ttfkam: "You literally just described everyone who has a bank account."
In some sense, well spotted. That is why I think the system is a bit cooked. People can't just put hand their money over to one institution, ignore what is done with it and expect to get a good outcome. This is a good way to get vast capital misallocations and, eventually, a lot of people ending up poor. More people than the alternative of the occasional bank run. I can see an argument for setting up full-reserve banks. But if people are going to lend their money to institutions that on-lend it, we should be seeing banking institutes get rolled up regularly and depositors losing at least some of their money. People shouldn't be allowed to ignore what is done with their money; it leads to some of the worst incentives in the modern economy.
But technically no, some people have their money spread over a few institutions. And most people don't seem to have cash savings these days anyway (which is rational given the inflation regime).
https://arstechnica.com/science/2024/02/over-2-percent-of-th...
See: Mt. Gox
People flocked to Bitcoin because they saw people get rich. That's it. Real estate is very heavily regulated by comparison and yet folks were buying, selling, and flipping like crazy. People want money. Regulations are an excuse, not the primary motivator.
Love it!
This statement relies heavily on how one might want to measure an equal society.
Fiscal policy is the only tool through which equity can be managed. Monetary policy is pointless.
A dollar today is always going to be worth more than a dollar tomorrow.
A dollar you own today has zero risk of not being delivered tomorrow.
You can invest that dollar one day sooner.
If there’s a general expectation of inflation, it exchanges for more today than tomorrow.
Think of a dollar today as one commodity and a dollar tomorrow as a separate and distinct one. There is a difference in our marginal preferences and that is where the interest rate comes from.
Just as both of us can be made better off trading blueberries and strawberries without actually creating anything new, the difference in our inter temporal marginal preference will reward the lender with a return even in the absence of risk.
If they didn't prop it up, it would tend to zero because banks have so much liquidity.
https://tradingeconomics.com/australia/interbank-rate
If you're lending someone a billion dollars, and your labour cost for doing the lending is in the hundreds (maybe thousands?) of dollars, then interest rates quickly approach 0.
Sure, no-one would do it for literally 0 dollars, but the rates at which banks lend to each other when there is a ZIRP policy at the central bank (including 0% paid on reserves) is negligible as far as the real economy is concerned.
Like the "cost of capital" in that case for issuing a mortgage has nothing to do with the interbank lending rate.