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Comment by riffraff | Hacker News Reader

I think "economy in the dumps" is a bit too harsh.

China is facing a deflating real estate bubble, but they still managed to grow the last year (official sources are disputed but independent estimates are still positive).

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I would refer you to these to take the counterpoint to your position [1][2] [3].

China is in a world of hurt, but the government is trying desperately to hide how bad it actually is. If this continues for a few more months, it will be an existential situation for their economy.

[1] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-hom...

[2] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-31/china-sto...

[3] - https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/foreign-direct...

it’s where the growth is coming from. Chinas growth (or even just sustenance) isn’t coming from a healthy job market and consumer spending. It’s mostly fueled by SOEs and prefectures going into debt to keep on investing, many local administration have found out they can trick debt limits by forming state-owned special purpose vehicles that aren’t bound to their debt limits. That’s not good at all. there’s a reason we are seeing tons of novel Chinese car brands being pushed here in Europe, they massively overproduced and cannot sell them in their own market anymore. It’s really not looking great atm.

edit: one also should keep in mind that the Chinese real estate market is entirely different in its importance to its populations wealth. "Buying" real estate is pretty much the only sanctioned market to invest your earnings. They still pretend to be communist after all.

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