I think if we were to see an X killer I’d much sooner predict Substack does it. I was sleeping on Substack a bit but it has many of the positive qualities of Twitter with many of the downsides removed:

* Notes are a short form platform but Substack itself is more long form centric. A huge problem of Twitter was excessive short form creates emphasis on snappy talking points over substance, but Substack more naturally lets you make your talking point but expound on it long form

* More creator-friendly letting you export your email list and leave the platform

* But has many the social media network strengths such as likes, retweets, recommends, etc

* Focused on strong writers as early users which lends itself more naturally to short form writing than the pictures of Instagram

* Doesn’t have the Facebook stigma that Threads has

Substack just feels like it has so many of the advantages of what Twitter offers while also being a new , unique thing. Threads feels more like Twitter, but by Zuckerberg, and the IG crowd seem less like natural writers than the journalists on Substack

I initially rolled my eyes at Substack being this big YC company around email lists, but I did admire some of their writers and since I’ve checked out their platform I’ve been extremely impressed.

It of course doesn’t have the same cultural cachet as Twitter but it also has none of the Taylor Swift deepfakes or bot armies. So a lot of headwinds. If I could bet on Threads, X, or Substack I’d wager on the Stack.