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Comment by propmaster | Hacker News Reader

I think it's a fantastic ship to smuggle drugs and weapons, so every high profile crime organisation on the planet will desire one, maybe yours, gratis ... admitting they can really deliver the ships without going out of business.

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Check out narco submarines - they have people in the jungles of Columbia building submarines that they pack with tons of cocaine (literally), which are discarded after a single ocean crossing. In general, it seems to be more economical to ship illicit materials with cheap/disposable vessels and vulnerable/impoverished people, rather than risking an expensive yacht to government seizure.

In fact, the point I was trying to illustrate is that if they steal your fancy luxury submarine is even less expensive, it's free, gratis, 100% discount. Do you really want a ship that it's seen as disposable delivery system by every single organised crime entity on the globe ?

You don’t want this type of sub for drug smuggling, I chased the smugglers and this massive monster will definitely be harder to operate and disguise than what they use currently.

Following your reasoning an airplane can't be hijacked because it's difficult to operate: in reality you only need a gun to operate anything, in right circumstances.

You misunderstand how many people are necessary to operate a sub at this scale, with all the machinery onboard, for weeks at a time. It’s on the order of a dozen rather than two or three for the current narco boats.

Also, it would be way way easier for us to track this sub versus what’s out there today. It’s way louder, I guarantee.

I don’t know about airplanes, but I’m a SWO qualified former naval officer that was onboard a sub hunting platform that we used to track narco boats and subs in different deployments, so I can tell you about ships and a little about subs since they share many similarities. I guarantee this type of sub isn’t used by narcos.

Yep. It's a giant machine with specialized logistics (supplies and parts) and staff needs, so it has to based somewhere. AI can't miracle away maintenance of such a complex beast, if it were ever built. There's no hiding it under a net in the Bahamas.

How are you supposed to hijack a submarine when it's subsurface?

I guess like you do for airplanes: the fact a plane can fly don't make it immune to hijacking. Example: you wait the sub is in the port, is moored, etc

Depth charges and a PA system.

That's true, but also consider how the entire world paid attention to the whereabouts of a missing submersible when there were a couple billionaires on board (OceanGate). I doubt the traffickers would want to risk that kind of exposure ;)

I mean, if you're transporting literally tons of cocaine at a go in disposable microsubs, you think the best thing is to attract a lot of attention by (a) stealing a rich, and therefore politically connected, person's submarine that (b) is trivially tracked by the USN?

I mean, size isn't stealthy. And it's not necessary for cocaine. It's the same reason that they smuggled coke on private planes instead of hihacking 747s.

I would find it funny if a country managed to bootstrap its way into high tech manufacturing like that. It sounds like the Columbian jungle would have a lot of demand for good engineering and machining know-how and if they are building disposable subs they'd have a lot of incentive to perfect cheap manufacturing technique.

If the drug trade doesn't work, they probably have the expertise to get involved in navel drones.

I’m picturing a lawnmower engine inside a hot water tank running 6” below the waves, but maybe I’m not giving them enough credit.

This actually seems to be happening already in regards to manufacturing. I read an obscure article a while back about autonomous narco submarines surfacing in Spain, which suggests a certain sophistication and standardization of the manufacturing process [1].

> The [d]rone submarines are essentially identical, suggesting series production of a refined design.

They also found a "narco surfboard" which presumably disguises drug shipments in an abandoned surfboard. In the arms race between traffickers and enforcers, I'd imagine both sides will be continuously developing increasingly sophisticated technology for underwater smuggling, especially given how much money is involved - so I could totally imagine a high-tech manufacturing industry emerge as a byproduct. I would also find it quite funny :)

1. http://www.hisutton.com/Narco-Drone-Submarine-Found-In-Spain...

> I would find it funny if a country managed to bootstrap its way into high tech manufacturing like that.

Didn't something similar happen with U.S. muscle cars during Prohibition?

Smuggling will always be a job for those low on the totem pole. It's dangerous and needs to be inconspicuous.

No, this ship is meant for crazy parties and expeditions. Amusingly, just because it may happen to contain a ton of drugs for their personal consumption doesn't mean they're trying to smuggle anything.

It can simultaneously be true that smuggling is performed by people deemed expendable, and that the kingpins behind them might purchase an extravagant vessel made for partying if they think it will improve the rate at which they successfully smuggle their illegal goods.

If you bring a submarine to market, intelligence agencies and smugglers will absolutely be interested in it.

That said, this is a submersible. If I understand correctly, that means it doesn't operate independently, but in tandem with a conventional vessel. So that may be far less useful.

Most of the ocean is dull and there is no much of a point in partying in the darkness of the oceanic waters.

I read that a typical load in a narcosub was worth about 100 million dollars and a narcosub itself costs 2 million dollars. Two narcotrips will not only pay for the submarine but also make a huge profit, your idea that smuggling is for those low on the totem pole and that it has to be dangerous is something that you invented.

The boats they use for this smuggling are the least seaworthy vessels I think I’ve had the pleasure to experience. We caught one go-fast because all four engines died and it was sinking, so they radioed for our help since we were already chasing them. These were very unsafe boats. The dudes onboard are not very important, their qualifications were they had been fishermen before and had families to hold over them to ensure the drugs got to the destination.

Do you work in the Coast Guard?

I think that the future for the drug smuggling is computer controlled submarines, and I'm not even talking about AI. I think drug producers will pre-program a route for a submarine that will autonomously navigate until the destination where it will be picked by a receptor.

I read that it's extremely hard to spot submarines, I can only imagine the kind of things that will be smuggled once there are functional submarines of the size of a big fish.

Navy, we were technically under coast guard command during interdictions though. It was also ten years ago or more so they’ve probably upped their game by now on both sides.

I don’t know about automated subs though, as three guys in a shitty boat can’t really be beat on price. An automated boat would be easier to catch if it was spotted but I suppose you could also put some trap on it to sink it fast when it’s boarded. We were only able to capture one semi submersible because they are very easy to scuttle.

Yup ... it's not lost on folks where the original design came about

Correction: this one actually goes to 250m depth. The one I was referencing just goes beyond the surface

This one doesn't go anywhere, that's just a number on a web page. It sounds impressive but not so impressive that it is unbelievable, which is good for the business of schlepping NFTs.

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