> Under these assumptions, Laura uses a computational technique called Dynamic Programming to evaluate all possible scenarios in the game tree. Once you factor in this more complex set of possibilities, the “62.5%” mirage disappears. Laura finds that if you are down by 2 TDs, G42D8 increases your probability of winning by less than 1%.

This is misreading the original source [1]. The <1% figure applies when you have not already gotten the first TD.

[1] https://punkrockor.com/2019/11/15/when-should-a-football-tea...