"Against" is a pretty clear winner at this point. The chances of a level 5 self driving car being available for purchase in the next six years are ~0.
Waymo is already there, in at least 2 cities but not all weather conditions. Expanding to 10 cities and all weather conditions in the next 6 years sounds more than plausible.
I had sided with Atwood (skeptic) but now it seems like Carmack "has already won".
At least in SF, I haven't seen a day where Waymo refused availability for the weather. Rode it all over town in the rainstorms this weekend, and found it a little jarring to see the windshield covered in rainwater cause the computer doesn't GAF.
If it doesn't need to handle snow to win this bet, it seems it could handle Seattle-tier rain already.
Situations that come immediately to mind:
- Driving in the hurricane lane on the shoulder during an evacuation
- Reversible lanes and streets
- Sizing up an icy hill and figuring out whether it's safe to keep going
- Ferries
- Knowing a baseball entering the road from behind a parked car will probably be followed by a child
- Understanding traffic police, sign turners, "follow me" trucks, etc.
[0] https://www.sae.org/binaries/content/assets/cm/content/blog/...
I actually see the main thing right now that would mean this bet is "not currently won by Carmack" is that they are not officially offering freeway access in its commercial product: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freew... But this seems minor, and I can't imagine it taking more than 2 years to allow freeway driving in multiple metros.
I can't fathom what would need to happen to derail this particular bet from being satisfied in Jan 2026 let alone Jan 2030.
(Note: if it wasn't for Waymo, I think this timeline would be much less clear. Tesla/Cruise feel much less predictable.)
Waymo has level 4 taxis in two US cities and is running tests elsewhere too. The usual reaction from the "This can't be done because somehow driving a motor vehicle is a uniquely human ability" people in those cities seems to be head-in-the-sand refusal to believe. The good news is that if they choose to believe a Waymo doesn't exist and step in front of it, it'll probably brake politely to a halt like they're any other asshole.
Level 5 mostly requires more range. I don't think this bet is a sure thing, but it's certainly possible that Waymo's reason you can't go from say New York City to Birmingham Alabama in 2030 is something that sounds like a taxi company reason rather than an "Our AI can't do that" reason.
I can confirm that in my experience, Waymo handles these kinds of situations fine. Better than many humans in SF seem to, ha! Compared to my past experiences with Cruise, where the car would become instantly paralyzed at the sight of flashing yellow lights, so it could phone home for human intervention.
Icy conditions seem like a big open question to me. As a human driver, there's a big difference between driving on a road slick with rain and a road slick with snow and ice..but maybe there is not much of a difference to a self driving car? Certainly, other humans on the road behave differently in snowy/icy conditions than in rainy conditions, and the self driving vehicle needs to share the road with them.
Seattle-tier rain probably isn't what you think. But if it operates in Seattle, it does need to handle snow --- at least enough to recognize it's snowing and find somewhere flat to chill out until the roads become drivable again.
I find it odd that a self-driving system only works in 2 cities. Is the model overfitted to only know some specific locations? How does that work?
Like, I can understand it struggling in snow or heavy rain. I can understand it struggling if the lines on the road are faded. But given a well-marked intersection in one city, and another well-marked intersection in another, why would it fail in one?
Yes. Every inch of drivable area is LIDAR-mapped. The opposite of the antifragile approach, which is harder to execute but much more durable.
If this is true, then I find it incredibly absurd that people would try to act like Waymo is farther than Tesla in self-driving tech.
Tesla is trying to make self-driving work everywhere without pre-mapped data beyond what you'd get from Google Maps.
A few weeks ago I saw a video of someone making his first Waymo ride, there was some construction site and the vehicle stopped and waited for some human to take over control. They are not there in any weather and given that the last 10 % of a problem have a tendency to consume 90 % of the effort, they might have a long road ahead even if it already mostly works.
You seem very confident that "against" will win after only two years have elapsed since the bet was made, when there are still EIGHT YEARS of time remaining on the bet.