The parts of Phoenix where Waymo operates is... SF is "(partially in another)"

I think each of these is already handled, or at least most. They say 99.4% of uptime in record inclement weather, which seems like it should satisfy "all". https://waymo.com/blog/2023/08/the-waymo-drivers-rapid-learn... I don't think they really mean "all" (like it shouldn't need to handle a lava flood). Just "all a human might do". This feels superhuman already.

I actually see the main thing right now that would mean this bet is "not currently won by Carmack" is that they are not officially offering freeway access in its commercial product: https://waymo.com/blog/2024/01/from-surface-streets-to-freew... But this seems minor, and I can't imagine it taking more than 2 years to allow freeway driving in multiple metros.

I can't fathom what would need to happen to derail this particular bet from being satisfied in Jan 2026 let alone Jan 2030.

(Note: if it wasn't for Waymo, I think this timeline would be much less clear. Tesla/Cruise feel much less predictable.)

I wonder when humans will meet level 5 by those standards?

The bet specifically exempts natural disasters and emergencies.

>Understanding traffic police, sign turners, "follow me" trucks, etc.

I can confirm that in my experience, Waymo handles these kinds of situations fine. Better than many humans in SF seem to, ha! Compared to my past experiences with Cruise, where the car would become instantly paralyzed at the sight of flashing yellow lights, so it could phone home for human intervention.

Icy conditions seem like a big open question to me. As a human driver, there's a big difference between driving on a road slick with rain and a road slick with snow and ice..but maybe there is not much of a difference to a self driving car? Certainly, other humans on the road behave differently in snowy/icy conditions than in rainy conditions, and the self driving vehicle needs to share the road with them.

That is a bit of an exaggeration. Yes, they do have problems in the rain, snow, or when it is really sunny out. But we are pretty good at driving in overcast but dry weather.

> Yes. Every inch of drivable area is LIDAR-mapped.

If this is true, then I find it incredibly absurd that people would try to act like Waymo is farther than Tesla in self-driving tech.

Tesla is trying to make self-driving work everywhere without pre-mapped data beyond what you'd get from Google Maps.

That happens in San Fran too. Random parking on the street for deliveries, bicycles, construction, pedestrians milling about on the road etc.

No, it's very clearly level 4.

Here's how you can tell so that you don't get confused as easily in future. Level 3 cars can require the occupant to drive the vehicle, "When the feature requests: You must drive the car". Waymo even offers service to people who cannot drive whether that's legally (they aren't licensed) or physically (blind people can use Waymo but can't drive a car). They are simply not required to take over driving.

It's been reported that the remote operators can't drive the car, they can only guide the decision-making process.

He also tried (is trying?) rockets.

Personally I think VR is outside the domain of expertise of 3D games and game engines. To think that VR is within that domain is exactly the error -- VR as an overall product requires different consumer behavior than buying a game for a PC you already have. It requires buying a new kind of device or buying into a whole new form of interaction. It requires remembering to use that device and think about what games you have for it. It requires engineers to ship high FPS and low lag to prevent nausea to a degree unheard of for PC gaming.

Facebook's VR plan seems to hinge on being "even more ubiquitous than mobile" <https://officechai.com/learn/mark-zuckerbergs-email-explaini...>, which is a level of constant use that 3D games don't really have.

I am not a VR or 3D game expert, but even I can list other key differences. I bet you can too if you try. I think those are reasons to think VR is not really the same domain. I am curious what you think.

The issue with VR is that it almost entirely doesn't require his type of expertise for it to succeed. It's almost entirely a hardware problem, in terms of cost, wearability/usability, quality, along with the other issues like nausea etc. None of which Carmack's vast expertise lends itself towards. Writing an app for Netflix isn't exactly using his skills.

We see this often with engineering types, many of us included. Vastly underestimating difficulty of challenging problems and naively believe they're simple to solve.

The major companies that have tried to go faster than Waymo have been destroyed by safety incidents (Uber, Cruise). Waymo's caution may be well-warrented.

>Why is Waymo so slow to roll out?

Ignoring the safety path, this other issue just scale. Manufacturing the cars would be a big problem. Getting a ton of them on the road is another. I wonder if all those sensors that the car uses could ramp up to a national level in a year.

I've been in the Waymo beta for a couple months now. At peak times, it's more expensive and slower than an Uber simply because there aren't enough cars on the road.

Because they're careful? Especially after the recent Cruise debacle - SF is relatively friendly to their efforts, and once they can point to a few years of problem-free operation in SF, other cities might allow them in, but trying to expand the service too early could prove a very costly mistake if a major issue is found and they get thrown out again...

I doubt that fees are quite covering expenses yet. I expect they'll roll out quite a bit quicker once expansion decreases their losses rather than increasing it.

you've just eliminated a lot of useful use cases. Who needs a car/service that only drives a limited set of "optimal routes" in good weather?

Also, "optimal routes" tend to quickly become suboptimal due to traffic, road closures etc.

John carmack's won the bet, 6 years early.

There's an additional aspect however: on days with e.g. freezing rain, human drivers might risk it, but companies like Waymo will probably decide to play it safe and not let their taxis run, because they know how much bad publicity an accident would be...

Regardless of city infrastructure, I've seen schools in North Carolina close after a light snow (like a few millimiters). In Stockholm this winter I regularly feel my car drifting when entering roundabouts, and a lot of roads have transformed from 2-lane streets into 1.5-lane streets.

> So that part is a fair question of which humans we're talking about when we talk about human-level driving skill.

These California-based companies assume everywhere is California, and still want to release those cars internationally.