There's more to unpack about welfare being "paying not to work" - 82 year olds, absence of employment in mining towns - but you've put the argument for small government well. You made me imagine a monkey driving a bulldozer.

Keynes' error was to pretend that the monkey is a qualified operator who follows the drawings. But the more democratic a nation becomes, the more its leadership resembles a cork bobbing on the tide. Furthermore, economics does not have perfect insight, so even a benevolent dictator will certainly fuck it up if she meddles.

Then, in a recession, you can take action to alleviate the pain somewhat, but you will inevitably just store up future pain for yourself. You could mitigate that future pain once the crisis has passed, but you won't, because the mitigation will alienate the voters. The pretence that you'll accept even a tiny amount of pain in the good times is the self-deception of an addict.

How am I doing?

This then reduces to the trolley problem. Where the one person on the side track is only presumed to be there, but might actually be further down the main track, and might get rescued anyway.

Here's my problem with von Mises. The cause of 2008 was a period of deregulation, basically Jamie Dimon going "trust me, bro" and kicking his lips. It's not an economic cause, it's a political one; but if we examine economists' contribution to the issue, we see decades of free-market-fundamentalism which, I put it to you, created massive overconfidence. The neolibs got exactly what they wanted and created a peculiarly neolib crisis. So the Austrian school is just as fingers-in-ears deaf to political folly as Keynes.