What's Gone Wrong at Boeing
theatlantic.com
theatlantic.com
1. Yeah sure, outsourcing bad, union-busting worse, but the fact remains that Spirit AeroSystems (the contractor that Boeing outsourced to, possibly for union-busting reasons) also assembles lots and lots of airframes for Airbus. Apparently without major issues?
2. The MCAS disaster was also really, really bad, but seems mostly unrelated, at least from a process point of view, from what has happened here (since it was fixed by updating the documentation, pretty much, and ultimately possibly not that different from initial Airbus struggles with flight automation)?
3. The 737-MAX (and 787, which is assembled using pretty much the same supply chain) seem, statistically speaking, much safer than older aircraft generations. It surely does not feel that way, but incidents-per-flight, not to mention incidents-per-flight-hour and incidents-per-flight-mile, strongly disagree.
The only facts that I can gather from amidst the wreckage of speculation, are that, yes, Boeing does seem to have an issue with basic tooling, which should definitely be corrected ASAP, but they're in the process of doing so, and then will be be pretty much as good and/or bad as their competition for the foreseeable future?
I would like to see the deep-dive on the cause of this (which we definitely will get, some months or years from now) before judging. And, for the record: I'm a huge Embraer 19x-E2 fan, love the A22x as well (engine issues notwithstanding), and will fly any version of the 737 as required.
Look up interviews of Spirit AeroSystems CEOs or their counterparts at Airbus and Boeing and you'll see that they get handled differently.
The information is out there you'll just need to take it. 5 mins of googling is just not enough for a topic like this.
The client still has the responsibility of doing quality controls at reception, or have good reasons to lighten them. Boeing has a lot to answer, especially since FAA gave them (after a ton of lobbying) the right to self-control themselves.
Then the FAA has a lot to answer for as well.
FAA's delegation is common. For this instance, FAA has already launched a probe and revoked Boeing's DOA for final safety checks.[0]
[0] https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/boeing-manufacturing-7...
> "Since at least 1927, the FAA has delegated certain safety certification responsibilities to qualified individuals within the aviation industry. Until 2004, the FAA regulated the production of new Boeing aircraft through a web of Designated Engineering Representatives (DERs), employees of Boeing charged with ensuring that new aircraft met regulatory standards. These DERs, though paid by Boeing, were selected by and reported to the FAA, which signed off on all certification decisions. “We knew we’d lose our livelihood if we didn’t maintain the integrity of making decisions the way the FAA would do it,” said a former DER. The FAA retained final authority and possessed a clear view of new aircraft’s certification process."
Regulatory Capture at the FAA By Claremont Journal of Law and Public Policy, Leo Kalb Bourke, November 12, 2021
Rolling back that 2004 ODA program to the DER structure would be the rational response at this point.
What's the rationale, again?
I'm not seeing any root cause analysis or justification in your text that reverting to a (still conflicted) secondee concept would prevent similar outcomes.
What "best practice" from before, albeit which had a secondee structure, would've caught this malfunction?
• developing MCAS in the first place as a scheme to deny pilots simulator time on the novel flight characteristics introduced by the changed engine size and position (as a matter of marketing policy)
• deliberately failing to document the MCAS system to avoid attracting regulatory attention
• designing the system such that it only received data from the current pilot seat's ipsilateral air speed sensor, instead of reading redundantly from both air speed sensors, creating a single point of failure
it was a case of engineering incompetence upon moral incompetence.
Boeing did not break any rules with the MCAS. The implementation was in accordance with existing aviation regulations, passed inspection and was safely implemented throughout most of the world.
There was a lot done against regulations at a minimum, and damn well don in bad faith with respect to the public.
Quote from TFA: Boeing did not submit a formal review of MCAS after the overhaul. It wasn't required by F.A.A. rules.
[1] https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/27/business/boeing-737-max-f...
If you are to be believed, that they broke no regulation, rules, or laws, that's a damnation on the existing body of regulation, rules, and laws, not a defense of Boeing.
It's wild that no one went to jail for this.
There is now a warning sticker on the 737-MAX that says "CAUTION: this aircraft is equipped with a stick pusher. See owners manual (updated versions only) for details. MAY CAUSE DEATH OR OTHER SIDE EFFECTS."
Oh, and possibly the stick pusher has been made less aggressive in situations that only occur outside North America. But the public record is, eh, sketchy on that. Best-case, pilots now at least know about it.
The number or the configuration of the air flow/angle-of-attack sensors on the 737-MAX was not changed, nor were there any changes to how these sensors are connected to the flight control systems. And probably rightfully so: the 737 platform is simply not about fly-by-wire, and retrofitting is not a realistic option. Whether the MCAS update(s) fit within those constraints remains to be seen, but has no bearing on the current discussion.
777 enters that chat. Over the 30 year lifetime of the aircraft there have been a total of 242 fatalities excluding terrorism. The first major incident resulting in a hull loss, happened over 10 years after the aircraft was introduced.
Both Boeing and Intel did this.
They reduced the number of people in C-suite who had STEM background until they didn't know how to make big technical decisions, or allocate money for R&D and production.
Scientists and engineers learn how to do business all the time, but you rarely see a lawyer or sales person getting STEM degree.
Perhaps it's time to have regulations like the medical industry has where the care providing organization must be run by someone with a medical license?
Albert Einstein was patent examiner in Swiss Patent Office in Bern for 7 years.
This is not on its face a bad thing, however if you're in the C-suite of an engineering company and you're not an engineer, you should probably have engineers close by that you trust, and listen to them. It's as bad for the business to have engineers put into the finance office with no finance expertise as it is to have accountants run an engineering firm with no engineering expertise available.
Those who are competent to make decisions should be given leadership positions. Everything else is just bad corporate governance.
We STEM people are very impressed with ourselves, but really nobody is getting a job at a major law firm without major law credentials, just like nobody is getting a job as a FAANG developer without major developer credentials - could you imagine trying to sell your law degree to them as a substitute?
Also, undergrad degrees in anything do not signal much expertise in the field, only that you could manage to get a degree. Nobody will base their decisions on someone saying 'I have a BS in X and I think ...'; they will want to hire an experienced, successful professional for advice. There are IP lawyers with masters degrees, and/or who worked for years as professional engineers.
In fact, all else equal, I'd expect STEM undergrads to do worse in law school, which is a humanities endeavor. For example, an essential skill is writing at a high level.
What's wrong with a great engineering firm? And is it possible to somehow reflect that greatness in the stock price better so that people don't feel a need to come in and change it?
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39002255 (26 comments, today)
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38981921 (145 comments)
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38979196 (293 comments)
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38978705 (310 comments)
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38969466 (350 comments)
- https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38956323 (345 comments)
They bring to light long-term problems, flaws, critics who warned about the problems, etc. But those things are not correlated with the outcome.
Remember that correlation requires both if A then B and if not A then not B. In this case, every enterprise of the scale and complexity of Boeing has problems, critics, flaws, etc. - there is no 'not A' condition, there is no correlation.
Airbus has those issues too - they are in the 'A' state - but they didn't lose a door plug. What we're seeing is that when something goes wrong, a sufficiently well-examined enterprise (even sports teams) will have someone to say 'I told you so'.
Their analysis may be no more worthwhile than a stopped clock. And even to the extent flaws are true, that's not at all conclusive. Anyone who has had to manage anything of a certain scale - not even a very large scale - knows that such flaws are inevitable; there is not enough time, labor, or money in the world to fix them all (and imagine doing that on the scale of commercial airliners!). The art to expert, technological management is to deliver results despite the flaws, to know how to make sausage.
The question is not, why was Boeing in the 'A' state; that's inescapable. The question is, why did Boeing management fail to do their job, which is to deliver results while in the A state? If it was an IT business, I might have some perspective. Making airplanes - I have no clue how the sausage is made. We need an industry expert.
(I'll also add that one failed door plug on one plane, out of all the planes Boeing flies, is questionable data for this analysis. It's not ok, it's a failure, but it may not be data. I'd guess that more planes will be struck by lightning this year.)
What if we’re approaching a complexity crisis and practically no one sees it happening?
I make things. I think I can see it.
But what would it look like if we are making systems so complex that it is exceeding the gasp of any one human to understand it, and at the same time exceeding the ability of humans to even explain parts of it effectively to other humans? What would that look like?
I can give you a clue. The headlines would look like “What’s gone wrong at xxxx”.
It’s not The Issue (tm) of course. It’s complexity, it’s the MBA-ification, it’s regulation, it’s corruption, it’s all the things that aren’t going to get better.
https://sites.tufts.edu/corruptarmsdeals/the-boeing-tanker-c...
https://www.nytimes.com/2005/03/08/business/boeing-chief-is-...
https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/21/nasa-doug-lo...
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN2603EZ/
https://www.justice.gov/opa/pr/boeing-charged-737-max-fraud-...
https://blog.apaonline.org/2019/04/08/the-ethical-failures-b...
What's gone wrong, is what goes wrong at most major corporations -- a focus more on "business" (which itself falls victim to fashion/fad such as image and perception of "fairness", KPIs, "mission statements", and other easy-to-measure-yet-made-up BS) rather than the main purpose : execution of engineering and ABSOLUTE INSISTENCE on quality. Boeing used to have an engineering-driven culture, but that has been destroyed. The CEO has deliberately driven the pendulum away from quality as #1 task to more concern over costs. Why is anyone surprised that they are now getting less quality?
It's not just Boeing, it's the buyers (the airlines). They are customers too. They want Good, Fast AND Cheap. But they can't get it. They're forgetting what the final consumers (the flying public, and the private airlines such as UPS & FedEx that fly packages) want -- a reliable aircraft that doesn't fall out of the sky. That decision to buy a crappier aircraft to save a few bucks is being made. By whom? Board of Directors? C-class decision makers whose bonuses are based on saving millions of dollars. Accountants? Middle management?
But the "savings" are a temporary sugar-high. Once the reputation is damaged, it will costs many times any savings to restore confidence, if ever.
No-one ever falls out of the sky in a shoddily designed/built aircraft coming apart mid-air and thinks "well at least they saved a few bucks on manufacturing." I just hope enough of the old-guard engineers are still around to try to restore the old culture and save this company from itself.
The two of those that are easy to measure will always get chosen. It's not that people don't want "good", it just takes a lot of effort to figure out if you are getting something good or not.
Reputation is one way, but that can be, and often is, spent for short-term gain.
The issue at Boeing is allowing things to swing deep into maximizing profit margins rather than forward-looking investment in technology improvements which reduce costs while maintaining or improving quality.
And they know airlines are going to buy their planes anyway. What are the alternatives? To wait 10 years to get Airbus? And hire second set of technicians and maintenance bases for Airbus while have the same for existing Boeing fleet?
More competition is similar to “defunding” all the competing companies.
Competition is not enough. It must be easy for new competitors to enter the market to ensure a nefarious trust doesn't form between companies.
Price fixing, wage suppression, monopolizing etc are all detrimental to the customer, employees, or other businesses, but it is possible to collaborate or “cease competition” in certain areas for mutual benefit in ways that are not detrimental (and in fact, are also beneficial) to others.
If this were true I'd expect to see industries where innovation usually comes from new companies in the market. The existing companies have stopped trying, stopped competing, and thus you only see innovation from new companies. Do we see this pattern often?
My point is the number of competitors is less important than how easy it is for new competitors to enter.
There was a huge disconnect between the leadership of the respective armies and the rank-and-file soldiers dying in the trenches. So it wasn't just "its Christmas, we shouldn't be killing each other", it was also "we have no idea why we are fighting in the first place, and our leaders think it more important that we die than that we win." It was deliberate insubordination to what the soldiers understood was pointless wasting of their lives.
I think the correct analogy is if the workers of Airbus and Boeing both struck because the two companies had both adopted new business practices in the name of business competition, that simply killed workers and passengers without providing either with any kind of competitive advantage.
In the absence of effective external oversight and regulation - clearly a problem across the economy, never mind here - you can guarantee a race to the bottom where only the beans matter.
If the company stops making quality products that usually creates a bonus, because cheap. Lower headcount? Bonus. Union busting? Bonus. Low wages? Bonus. Indifference to worker welfare? Bonus. Cosy revolving door relationship between lawmakers, regulators, and senior management? Mega payout!
The incentives are all aligned towards making payouts for owners bigger, while lowering objective quality of service, worker conditions, and worker pay.
Airbus is less terrible because the EU regulatory regime isn't quite as toothless, and the EU has a very slightly less competitive and exploitative financial culture.
You find the same human-hostile forces right across the economy - from landlords who send rents into an exploding price spiral, to utilities that monopolise infrastructure while investing as little as possible, to pork barrel government spending at inflated prices, to startups whose only real USP is an app and a plan to sidestep existing regulations, to tiny restaurants that expect customers to tip generously, because they're certainly not going to pay waitstaff a living wage.
There must be real competition for this to work. In reality their are 2 large plane builders, Airbus and Boeing. And I believe Airbus also as issues too.
Plus, you know that old saying, "In the long run, we are all dead" :)
I mean, sort of... but with something as complex as aviation, the feedback cycle into the market is slow and noisy.
"Too big to fail" works if they're making the right people rich but were otherwise being seen to do their job, then suddenly external factors seem to threaten their existence and money can get them back to making the right people rich. The pandemic was a good example of that. However, when they're publicly failing to do their job due to a broken or corrupt internal culture then instead of bailouts they might get broken up or more drastically changed because money can't solve the problem at that point.
The analogy to the banking crisis doesn't quite work. For years the banks didn't have any major snafus, banking in general was working great for most people and making many (and crucially, all the right people) rich. Also, the previous problems had been papered over pretty effectively and 2008 was a particularly bad crash. Boeing on the other hand has had a string of major crises for a few years in a row. It'd be comparable to the banks if savings and loan, the dot com crash, and 2008 all occurred within 5 years. By that third one very few politicians would have the political capital left to spend on bailouts.
Is there room for improvement? Sure. But some of y'all are acting like this is a fundamental failure of capitalism when the small handful of accidents over the past few months is actually evidence of how good planes are--not how bad.
How good other planes are. The MAX record is abysmal. https://www.airsafe.com/events/models/rate_mod.htm
It is far from a condemnation of Boeing and capitalism that one of their more innovative products is suffering some setbacks, and those setbacks amount to it being as unsafe as the average plane 30 years ago. Think about that: in 1970 the average flight was 2x worse, and still people chose to accept that risk voluntarily. Today, that level of risk just means Boeing will try to refine the product.
Failures of "-isms" are when millions starve in famines--not when a new product suffered a pushed back timeline for being a relatively unsafe compared to other contemporaneous models.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/fatal-airliner-accidents-...
> Failures of "-isms"
And that's a very weird diversion, since this isn't about any ideology, but go ahead, travel by MAX 8.
The safety of air travel is not due to current Boeing's practices, if anything, it's despite the efforts of their leadership to cut costs. Air travel safety is due to operational procedures, airline maintenance personnel and safety regulations.
I agree that this isn't a fundamental fault of capitalism, particularly since the way Boeing is propped up is not very capitalistic.
but now that planes have issues, crash, kill people and companies have customers telling them there is no way they are going to buy tickets if the flight goes on a boeing plane....
reputation is gained by tea-spoon. lost by the liter.
the damage to boeing's reputation is gonna take DECADES. if boeing does not die from it.
so.. how does that short-term stupid money before safety view feels now ?