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Comment by CogitoCogito | Hacker News Reader

China doesn't elect Taiwan's leaders so I don't really see why we should care if China sees Lai as a troublemaker. China likes to say that other countries should stay out of its domestic politics. Well China should stay out of Taiwan's domestic politics as well.

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According to The CCP, there is no such thing as "Taiwan's domestic policies".

The CCP may choose to live in a dreamworld, but you and I shouldn't pretend it has any basis in reality.

Youd do well in pressuring your own country to recognize Taiwan as a nation - very few do. Pleasing China trumps ethics for most nations at the end of the day, apparently.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Political_status_of_Taiwan

Honestly I think at this point supporting Taiwan's defense is more important. The entire world could be unified in officially acknowledging the ROC, but it is military and economics that deter any Chinese invasion. Don't get me wrong, I do believe that the world should be less duplicitous and honestly acknowledge the ROC, but that alone won't really be much protection for Taiwan.

Putin lived in a dream world ok. When you fail to slap them out of it, you end up with serious sleepwalking accidents.

The strong language from China is all preparation for the planned invasion. “What are you talking about? This is a rogue province. We’ve been warning you for years” They even have a deadline.

If you somehow think it won’t happen it’s you living in a dreamworld.

Where did I ever say the risk of China's invasion should ever be ignored? You and I and anyone honest should laugh at the dreamworld their foreign policy lives in (i.e. the idea that the PRC and ROC aren't two separate countries), but we should take their delusions very seriously. Taiwan should continue to build their defense and their international relationships to try to keep China from invading. No one paying attention is under any illusions as to the true point of China's propaganda.

I just hope it happens while we are young

I find it quite sad that you’re looking forward China’s invasion of Taiwan and the innumerable deaths that would result.

It's quite unlikely to happen for the same reason it hasn't happened for the last century. It's militarily hard to do because you'd have to land tens of thousands of troops and it's hard to get them over the sea.

The last waterborne invasion of that kind of scale was D-Day and if anything things would be tricker now that anti ship missiles are rather effective.

I mean the communists have wanted to take over Taiwan since 1949 when they took over the rest of China but the sea remains a barrier. It's quite possible that rather than Taiwan falling to the commies, it will be the mainland that gets taken over by democracy.

My worry is that China believes that Taiwanese are weak and will surrender immediately. This is the impression I get from China supporters online. They also talk about Taiwan capitulating from bombardment or blockade, but those have never worked in the past.

I think Taiwan needs to show more preparation and resolve. Maybe this election will change things and they will spend more on military. Mostly by stockpiling shells, missiles, mines, and food. Taiwan has advantage that they can build own missiles since few will sell to them.

According to USA as well.

Both China and the US do not recognize Taiwan as an independent nation

The US does not officially consider Taiwan a sovereign nation so China doesn’t throw a tantrum, but in every other way it treats it like one.

This sounds like you’re downplaying the lack of US recognition. I’m not sure what tantrum you’re imagining, but if it’s for the sake of trade relations I don’t think it’s worth being complicit in denying sovereignty.

I agree in principle, but the only thing that keeps China from invading Taiwan is the ability of Taiwan to defend itself (with international help). Explicit US (or broader world) recognition of the ROC doesn't mean China wouldn't invade anyway. Hell even if China would officially recognize the ROC as legitimate, that wouldn't mean they wouldn't invade in the future (they have no problem ignoring past treaties when it suits their interests). This is all just a political game by China to present a narrative that bends reality to pretend they're not invading and taking over a country that neither threatens them or wants to be ruled by them. So while I agree with you it's pretty disgraceful of the US and other countries to advantage themselves through trade and cooperation with Taiwan without officially recognizing their sovereignty, I still think the most important would be if more countries at least supported them in their defense against Chinese aggression.

Exactly. The US _does_ recognize the ROC as the legitimate government of Taiwan it just chooses not to _say_ so. Considering trade, tourism, and immigration policies, it's quite clear that the US treats the ROC as a more legitimate government of Taiwan than it does the PRC of China.

The US does recognize the governing authorities in Taiwan and maintains diplomatic relations with them. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Relations_Act

The TRA provides for recognition of Taiwan, but explicitly not for diplomatic relations at the full Ambassador/Embassy level. Instead of an Embassy for example, there is a liaison office. You and I might think of it as identical to an Embassy, but its a bit of legal sleight of hand from the 1970s to keep China feel respected and make the Taiwanese feel happy. If you look at official photos of visits you never see the TW or US flags together for example like you would do if, say, a diplomat from the US visited France.

Taiwan feels like one of those cases where a little ambiguity is actually safer for all concerned than a clear position. You ideally want a situation where the mainland can saber rattle occasionally to keep their domestic audience happy and where Taiwan can sometimes make it sound like an independent state, but neither moves down the track any further.

An invasion attempt by China or a unilateral independence motion by Taiwan would be a disaster for all three parties, the Taiwanese, mainland China and the US.

The U.S. doesn’t consider Taiwan as part of China.

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