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Comment by bethekind | Hacker News Reader

Title should be: " My AI Timelines haven't sped up, but now I think there's a 10% chance of AI dominance in 5 years"

His AI timelines haven't sped up, only clarified

It’s also barely clarified and has a ton of false precision problems, which I’d expect a researcher who works in the field not to have. Why 10% vs 20% or 15%, no real reason, just vibes, but it gets clicks.

At some level, isn’t any prediction about the future that involves too many variables somewhat always going to come down to vibes when trying to create a percentage confidence level?

Is there a way to actually mathematically quantify this better? When people make predictions with percentages like this, I understand what they’re trying to communicate, even if the math isn’t precise. There’s a reason all his percentages are in clean multiples of 5.

There’s no reason to use numbers then. Use words and don’t hide behind sounding precise and mathematical

Maybe for you. I actually do think something meaningful is communicated when someone says “I’m about 60% confident in this” versus saying “I’m fairly confident in this.”

I don’t take it as him trying to put on a veneer of precision on what he’s saying. In fact it feels kinda obtuse to assume that’s what he’s doing.

He can "feel the AGI".

It's right there talking to birds sent to spy on us.

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