[1] https://nrf.com/research/monthly-economic-review-december-20...
The typical force for prices to go down in a situation like this involves too many houses for sale. And given that most new construction froze, as the interest rates also hurt builders, we'd need an increase of supply from people being forced to sell, at a time few want to. That means large job losses and being unable to afford the mortgage they already have. A job market so bad, we'd most likely been in a pretty big recession. Given that the fed wants to avoid this, it's very unlikely that we'll see home prices fall at all unless they mess up. This isn't that weird in other parts of the world: There's been soft landings in other countries, just never in the US.
The whole idea of rate cuts isn't just a matter of pundits. Jerome Powell suggested up to three rate cuts in 2024, and him speaking is not punditry: Depending of who you are learning macro from, it is forward guidance, a form of monetary policy.
Covid, the lockdowns, and the post-lockdown period have been large natural experiments, testing whether different macroeconomics theories hold water. We had a by-the-book supply shock, followed by different levels of fiscal and monetary stimulus throughout the world. Economists will argue about this for decades.
Suddenly when construction ground to a halt in early 2020, prices started spiking by 30%+ per year (extremely low interest rates obviously was a factor as well). Construction seems to be back in full swing over the past year, so basically anyone who wants a new house can buy one if they're willing to wait 6 months or so. New construction prices have leveled off and the junkiest tract houses are closing at $100K or more below their prices a year ago (still $200K more than they would have sold for in 2019 though).
More likely given the data is we end up with 2-4 small rate cuts this year as the Fed tries to stick the landing.
I agree with your skepticism though.
The upcoming presidential election