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Comment by foxyv | Hacker News Reader

The US is probably more prepared than any other time in history. That isn't even taking into account NATO. Just our low end surplus hardware is doing a great job of fending off Russia in Ukraine. I can only imagine the storm of nope coming down the pipe for anyone who attacks Taiwan.

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Taking just shipbuilding as an example, the US is way behind China in industrial capacity

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-chinas-shipbuilding-...

The Navy is struggling to staff the ships it does have

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/12/12/facing-a...

Recent acquisitions like the LCS are expensive boondoggles (the Navy managed to buy a boat that dissolves in water) and are getting retired years before their planned service life.

I’m not sure where this confidence comes from?

The absolute scale of the US military is mind boggling. We have been overspending on this stuff for half a century. The LCS was a piddling $100 billion compared to the over $1.52 trillion per year spent on military in general.

Saying that we need to prepare MORE is insane. It would be like asking if Anderson Silva has prepared enough to fight a high school wrestler.

>>> We have been overspending on this stuff for half a century

I don't think it follows that the US is prepared. Most of that money is just maintenance. You have to spend it just to keep the forces you have. You can't derive much value from the service members who have retired or the stockpiles of obsolete equipment. To put it in extreme terms, if the US stopped spending now, it might not take China very long to overtake them in capability, even though it might take decades to overtake them in spending.

I can't prove a negative. But looking at the numbers, US Aircraft are more advanced and numerous. Ships are more capable and there are more carrier groups. Submarine fleets are better and more numerous. Weapon stockpiles are bigger and higher quality. The US has strategic partnerships with hundreds of nations completely surrounding China. NATO members include 8 of the top ten militaries in the world. Space assets and capabilities are top notch.

Respectfully, it feels like you’re missing my point. It is very well known that the US military expenditure is larger than the next N largest countries combined. I’m saying that those kind of financial analyses, which have especially taken off in the last 30 years as the US became the world’s “lone superpower” and finance capitalism became ascendant, are not nearly as relevant as good old fashioned materialist analysis.

The ability of the US to continue plowing money into its military is only an effective measure of US preparedness insofar as that money is used to actually, you know, prepare for stuff.

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