A war over Taiwan is a real possibility, and the U.S. is not prepared | Hacker News Reader

A war over Taiwan is a real possibility, and the U.S. is not prepared

noahpinion.blog

4 pointsjseliger8 comments

The US is probably more prepared than any other time in history. That isn't even taking into account NATO. Just our low end surplus hardware is doing a great job of fending off Russia in Ukraine. I can only imagine the storm of nope coming down the pipe for anyone who attacks Taiwan.

Taking just shipbuilding as an example, the US is way behind China in industrial capacity

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-navy-chinas-shipbuilding-...

The Navy is struggling to staff the ships it does have

https://www.forbes.com/sites/craighooper/2023/12/12/facing-a...

Recent acquisitions like the LCS are expensive boondoggles (the Navy managed to buy a boat that dissolves in water) and are getting retired years before their planned service life.

I’m not sure where this confidence comes from?

The absolute scale of the US military is mind boggling. We have been overspending on this stuff for half a century. The LCS was a piddling $100 billion compared to the over $1.52 trillion per year spent on military in general.

Saying that we need to prepare MORE is insane. It would be like asking if Anderson Silva has prepared enough to fight a high school wrestler.

>>> We have been overspending on this stuff for half a century

I don't think it follows that the US is prepared. Most of that money is just maintenance. You have to spend it just to keep the forces you have. You can't derive much value from the service members who have retired or the stockpiles of obsolete equipment. To put it in extreme terms, if the US stopped spending now, it might not take China very long to overtake them in capability, even though it might take decades to overtake them in spending.

I can't prove a negative. But looking at the numbers, US Aircraft are more advanced and numerous. Ships are more capable and there are more carrier groups. Submarine fleets are better and more numerous. Weapon stockpiles are bigger and higher quality. The US has strategic partnerships with hundreds of nations completely surrounding China. NATO members include 8 of the top ten militaries in the world. Space assets and capabilities are top notch.

Respectfully, it feels like you’re missing my point. It is very well known that the US military expenditure is larger than the next N largest countries combined. I’m saying that those kind of financial analyses, which have especially taken off in the last 30 years as the US became the world’s “lone superpower” and finance capitalism became ascendant, are not nearly as relevant as good old fashioned materialist analysis.

The ability of the US to continue plowing money into its military is only an effective measure of US preparedness insofar as that money is used to actually, you know, prepare for stuff.

But what will China do for their imports? Unless they can win the war quickly won't they struggle to import the stuff they need, especially food? The US may be unprepared for total self-sufficiency, but at least it's capable of it. Is China?

Wrong wrong wrong

There is ZERO chance the US will start WW3 over Taiwan. Absolutely no chance.

There are a number of reasons, first and foremost, the US would likely lose. The US and China have only had one military encounter in recent history - Chosin Reservoir during the Korean War. It may be the worst ass-kicking the US has ever received. Maybe the only time I can recall that the US military broke unit cohesion...meaning men were running for their lives. Of course Chinese losses were also crazy, but all that matters is who wins. Its crazy how not a single blogger on this topic seems to reference Chosin (those who do not know history are doomed to repeat it...)

In a present-context, this is in China's backyard. If they are ready to accept losses, it is almost impossible to win against a near-peer adversary with supply lines so much in their favor.

Lastly...Americans simply do not care that much about Taiwan. All it would take is one US carrier sunk and the public would want out. Lots of bloggers like to hand-wave about the essential links between the US and Taiwanese economies but no one would care when 10k body bags are being brought back to the US

This is how it ends: the Chinese agree to be hands-off with Taiwan for 99 years in exchange for free-trade access to US auto markets. Washington will approve and within ten years we are all driving BYD cars that cost $25k.

Also, the comments on Noah's site are insane...people talking about giving Taiwan nukes (actually insane, I don't want my children incinerated just to protect TSMC)...re-instituting the draft (will never happen and would destroy whatever government tried to push it)...

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