Sure, we can contrive access sequences where that is not random, because the whole thing is actually deterministic. That's not what I mean by random; I mean not expected to be related under realistic conditions where the inputs aren't contrived.
A good cache algorithm should be immune against contrived input sequences. With this one, we could devise a degenerate access sequence such that a particular item is always placed just ahead of the Hand, such that it is victimized in the next access cycle. Yet another particular item is given the maximum leeway. And that could be in spite of both items appearing equally often and deserving the same treatment.