Sure, we can contrive access sequences where that is not random, because the whole thing is actually deterministic. That's not what I mean by random; I mean not expected to be related under realistic conditions where the inputs aren't contrived.
A good cache algorithm should be immune against contrived input sequences. With this one, we could devise a degenerate access sequence such that a particular item is always placed just ahead of the Hand, such that it is victimized in the next access cycle. Yet another particular item is given the maximum leeway. And that could be in spite of both items appearing equally often and deserving the same treatment.
If we consider LRU, no contrived pattern of access on LRU will cause it to evict some item Y if there is an item Z present which was less recently touched than Y.
If the algorithm is known and accepts user facing requests then it becomes a target. A client can use the network speed of a dialup modem to bring down a modern server simply by crafting a request pattern to exploit hash flooding. This is why you generally want some injected noise, adaptivity, and use an algorithm that offers robustly good hit rates. A specialized policy that is superior in a narrow set of workload is still very useful when targeted at an expensive problem, but that's a design assumption that few can reasonably make.