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Comment by isthispermanent | Hacker News Reader

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It's actually really hard to keep discoveries like this secret or restricted. The real value worth protecting often is how to manufacture and mass produce.

The nuclear bomb is a perfect example: It's actually a very simple mechanism, and the steps needed to refine the materials and make the mechanism are extremely well documented. However, the capability to actually reliably and safely make it is quite difficult.

Thats not really true about nukes. Some of the simple first ones (namely the 'gun model') were simple enough that you can just do it if you had the uranium (because the gun model is literally just slap a bunch of uranium into itself), but the efficiently & yield is low.

If you want a real nuke today - the thermonuclear fusion bombs - you're going to be missing a lot of parts that aren't in the public documents.

> you can just do it if you had the uranium

This is actually proving my point.

For the simple bomb you mentioned, you need U-235, in high quality. That's actually very difficult and dangerous to refine and manufacture. It's time consuming, expensive, and requires bespoke process across multiple disciplines. Even today, some nation-states struggle with the process.

While i'm still extremely skeptical there's anything to this, especially with the total lack of professionalism in the initial "discovery", I'm not sure something this big is within their ability to control, at least if they're not right on the cusp of it.

This kind of science is almost inherently international, and I don't think they could possibly keep up "keeping quiet" all the potential successes.

That said, if there was one, I do think they'd at least try and fail.

China filed more IP than rest of world combined in 2022. There is no reason to keep it secret with IP-Laws and Patents. https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/202312/12/WS6577b803a31040ac...

99% of these patents are bogus

There's also a huge reputational advantage to be the first to announce the discovery.

If the CCP forbids such announcements, young ambitious Chinese scientists will decide that they should get out as soon as they have a chance, because otherwise they will never make international fame. Consider what that would do to Chinese tech in ten years.

Because something so huge would inevitably get out anyway, or be made to get out by the CIA or something if necessary.

I think you mean CPC.

I don’t think the CCP gets this stuff or its importance.

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