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Comment by TexanFeller | Hacker News Reader

I want an EV to be more reliable and save me more money in the long run. EVs start out ~10k more than the Corolla most people should buying. They then compromise the long term reliability and maintenance cost with high tech gee whiz features. I’d sooner have manual roll up windows than touch screen controlled air vents. When you integrate sensors and software controls into every little thing, we know those things will start failing and your intricate and overly proprietary systems will be expensive to repair. Their marketing says the electric motor will run longer, but a Toyota is already dead reliable for 300k miles and the bits in the cabin will last without repairs too. ICE cars are so reliable I don’t think anyone in my extended family has spent over $1k fixing them in any single year, with most years just the cost of an oil change.

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That is one of the issues for me. Plus, the only viable EV now for me is Tesla, but they keep making silly decisions and are just an odd automaker.

By silly decisions I mean things like removal of turn signal stalk, removal of parking sensors, lack of a gauge in field of view(y, 3), etc.

I love ability to buy online.

I hate the lack of an online parts catalog where I can purchase OEM parts. This is a big issue for me. I have enough experience to do anything on ICE car myself, engine rebuild included.

The cost of a replacement battery is astronomical. I can replace an engine in an ICE vehicle for $2k.

It also appears that Tesla is more expensive to insure.

The batteries have an 8 year warranty, by which point it will be cheaper to replace them. You probably won’t have to since NMC batteries will last 1,000 cycles x 200 miles = 200,000 miles. LFP batteries will be 3x that.

Edit: not sure why this is attracting downvotes

Here is proof of the 8 year warranty:

> 8 years or 100,000 miles

( Note: I chose to quote the lowest mileage to avoid controversy )

https://www.tesla.com/en_gb/support/vehicle-warranty

Here is NMC vs LFP:

> A key advantage of LFP is its longer life cycle, resulting in less degradation concerns. LFP packs are capable of more than 3000 full recharge cycle counts compared to NMC at around 1000 to 2000 cycles.

https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i...

What makes you think it will be cheaper to replace them? Tesla recently increased prices on batteries.

> Electric vehicle battery prices are falling faster than expected

> Goldman Sachs Research now expects battery prices to fall to $99 per kilowatt hour (kWh) of storage capacity by 2025 — a 40% decrease from 2022 (the previous forecast was for a 33% decline).

https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...

just how cheap do you expect that to get to? right now a model s has a 90kwh battery... that's almost 9 grand to replace in 2025. there will be a floor to this and i don't think it's going to be that cheap. gm et. al. are looking into 200kwh batteries reasonably soon. that's almost 20 grand to replace or the cost of a small ICE car.

The smart money expects a Moore’s Law kind of curve here for quite some time going forward, given the economies of scale and powerful incentives.

There will be more variability than with Moore’s Law because the raw materials are more expensive, it’s not just about building a fab and then amortizing over billions of parts.

Expect a rough annual decrease of 5-15% in $/kWh for some time. We continue to find new chemistries and electrod materials that bring prices down.

Will there eventually be a floor? Yes, for sure. But we’re not there yet.

The problem here is the retail price on things does not really drop.

using a Laptop as an example, prices of Laptops go UP every year, their price / performance ratio may improve...

So in this example if your 300 Mile range battery costs $15,000 today you may be able to get a 600 mile range battery for $15,000 in the future but you will unlikely be able to buy a 300 mile range battery for $8,000

In inflation-adjusted terms the retail prices of things absolutely do drop.

Sure, Tesla might choose to only sell a 600-mile range battery for $15k instead of the 300-mile range battery for $8k. But if there’s a market for a 300-mile vehicle that costs $7k less, and that vehicle can be profitably produced, then it will very likely exist.

An estimate from a bank isn’t proof that the retail prices will decrease. Savings aren’t always passed down to consumers.

Again, this doesn't mean consumers will actually get cheaper batteries. Musk himself was promising $5k-$7k battery replacement, yet we saw a price increase.

If we reached Musk's promised numbers then battery replacement would no longer be an issue for me, but when we are talking $15k-$20k then something like a model 3 is scrap for me at 100k+ miles.

Again? Not sure what that means. As for 100k miles - there are cars over that now. Tesla aren’t the only game in town, and BYD is ready to eat their lunch. Competition will drive prices down.

If i had a nickle for every time Goldman Sachs has been wrong I would never have to work again

My 2014 Model S battery has lost less than 10% of the original range. Why would I replace the battery?

You wouldn’t, that’s not my argument. People talk about the cost of replacing the battery at today’s prices, but in reality you’d be paying the future price. Given the 8 year warranty, expected 200,000 - 600,000 mile* lifetime [0] and the rapid decline [1] of battery prices, most people would never need to replace the battery and if they did, it would be in a future where they are cheaper.

[0] https://zecar.com/resources/what-are-lfp-nmc-nca-batteries-i...

* Assume 200 miles of range on one charge at 1,000 cycles for NMC, intentionally lower to avoid controversy.

[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/intelligence/pages/electric-veh...

> Battery pack prices are now expected to fall by an average of 11% per year from 2023 to 2030

Ah, sorry I misunderstood and I think we agree nearly completely. However, while I'm a fan of LFP, especially for UPSes, for cars it's a delicate balance of lower energy density vs longevity. What I can say is the the Li-Ion in my car have held up much better than expected, but I'm also babying them to the extreme, only rarely charge beyond 80% and rarely supercharging. At this point I fully expect to keep my car for 15+ years and never replace the battery.

LFP batteries are definitely becoming more prevalent. The standard range Teslas in some regions come with them. As you said, NMC should limit the charging to 80% for daily use.

Interestingly for LFP the recommended is 100% so that actually means that a standard range LFP Model Y can get more miles at 100% than the long range can at 80% for daily driving. There’s not much in it but it still feels weird!

The reason LFPs are becoming more prevalent is because LFPs have worse range but are cheaper, and we've reached the tail-end of the cost-vs-range bell curve. Or to put it another way, buyers are much more sensitive to 100miles vs 200miles, than they are 300 miles vs 400 miles. OEMs just don't need the extra range, not if it increases the pricetag.

It also does wonders for the supply chain - the N in NMC stands for Nickel, and most Nickel comes from Russia. The C stands for Cobalt, for that matter.

And Cobalt comes from artisanal mines in Congo that utilize child labor. So definitely another plus for LFP there.

And (no joke) the word Cobalt comes from the belief that Kobolds were defending Saxon silver mines with toxic minerals. We've known for a long time that Cobalt compounds are pretty toxic to miners.

80% of cobalt mines in Congo are owned and operated by the Chinese battery companies, such as CATL, the largest producer of LFP.

>> LFP batteries are definitely becoming more prevalen. The standard range Teslas in some regions come with them. <<

LFP batteries are fine (but barely) for entry-level, low-range EVs, or stationary energy storage systems (aka, ESS).

>> As you said, NMC should limit the charging to 80% for daily use. <<

All lithium ion batteries, including LFP, suffers accelerated degradation under high SOC, high C-rates; or in LFP's case, extreme temperature.

>> Interestingly for LFP the recommended is 100% so that actually means that a standard range LFP Model Y can get more miles <<

That 100% SOC charging causes a lot of wear and tear in LFP batteries, but it is still required to recalibrate the BMS to avoid misreading of SOC/range and other associated problems such as cell imbalancing issues. According to Cleanerwatt reports Oct 22, 2022, as a result of 100% charging:

  Tesla LFP Battery 10% RANGE LOSS PROBLEM? | Model 3 RWD https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suw20wPrbL0
  The brand new LFP batteries will degrade substantially quicker.  There's not long-term retention data for LFP batteries on the market yet, but the trend tends to be substantially faster degradation.  Trends show them stabilizing around that 10% degradation mark in about half the time as non-LFP batteries - around 50,000 miles instead of 100,000 miles."

There is no long-term data yet, though BYD has been making/using much smaller LFP battery packs in their EVs since 2009, but these LFP packs aren't likely to last anywhere near what many LFP faithfuls blindly believe they would last.

The main driver behind LFP's popularity is the cost, especially during the past 2-3 years of COVID-19 which wrecked havoc in the auto supply-chain and inflated prices. China under their massive state subsidy and protectionism (banning foreign battery competitors and cutting all subsidies to EVs with their batteries since 2015) was able to mass-produce them at scale as LFP's share of EV market went from 2% in 2020 to 30% in 2022. China is also very much behind LFP because their ability to export EVs is limited by the fact that other leading battery chemistries such as NCM/NCA are largely guarded by the Japanese and the Korean battery makers -- China ensured that they couldn't get ahead in their domestic market by banning their business very early on and cutting all subsidies to EV with foreign batteries or since 2015 under Made-In-China 2025.

Otherwise, LFP is really a cheap, inferior battery chemistry for EVs.

If this argument were true: (A) a Prius replacement battery with now dinosaur NiMH tech would have fallen from $4k new to nothing. (B) any existing hybrid / EV would be getting bonkers range improvements w/ updated cell technology.

The best analogy I can think of: a battery cell / chemistry (akin to standardized RAM) is not equal to a battery pack (similar to a motherboard with soldered RAM).

For a variety of reasons (consumer preference, automaker greed?), unlike a bus / plane, a modern automobile is engineered to last 5 - 10 years (200k - 400k miles). The entire industry is predicated on selling new vehicles (much like smartphones, or computers) = no mainstream automaker is going to invest in building, testing, and then certifying a new battery pack to take advantage of new chemistry. You might cite Tesla's work on the Roadster as an example, but I'd argue this is an exception (a sendoff for their original halo car) rather than the norm.

& until we have a vehicle with enough scale, there exists no incentive for aftermarket to invest in building a new pack for a specific car. You could also argue, (& I'll concede) that Model 3 / Model Y might be the first car at scale to attract such investment – although I have doubts given (A) the barrier to entry for a pack is higher than a rando ICE part (e.g. would said company be able to build a BMS that talks to the vehicle?!) & (B) would any aftermarket company even try, given manufacturers will surely go out of their way to prevent this (we've already seen OTA disabling of features on EVs & I don't have to cite all the right to repair fighting that's ongoing…).

Is this a good thing? Absolutely not. Is it how it should be? Also no. But a lot of us (present party included) enable this when we want nice new things.

Until that changes, we're not getting cheaper battery packs for a legacy vehicle.

I'm willing to accept that motive batteries will be less expensive in general in the future because of market expansion etc. But does that really mean motive batteries for a specific vehicle will be less expensive?

People in comments are always talking about replacing individual cells from packs, but I don't think that's actually a common service now, and labor and support considerations may not make it a real option either.

(Battery wear seems to be a lot less than people expect as well, more data would be great, but I don't know if that's likely to appear.)

why is tesla the only viable option?

I’ve test driven most of the competition. They are all much more expensive for a subpar product from what I’ve seen.

IMO the plugin hyrbid market is a much more natural transition and some of those vehicles are becoming very good. The Chrysler Pacifica plug-in minivan is excellent for the price and the BMW X5 plugins are by far the best luxury plugin SUVs that I’ve seen.

You can get good deals on used Pacifica plugins too. Typically in the $20k range.

But we still need a good EV option that is close to $20k brand new.

I'm not sure I agree with your first statement.

At the low end I would take a Hyundai Ioniq any day over a model 3, and they're comparably priced.

At the high end, I'll concede things are a bit more expensive, but I'll take the barely used Taycan Turbo I got for 70k any day over a new Model S.

I should have included the Ioniq in the list. It was right up there.

No supercharger network.

That made Ioniq dead in the water for us. Not to mention lack of good life changing features we rely on in our Teslas.

If you only drive local, ever, then the Ioniq could work… but why would you get one?

And now that the Model Y price has dropped so much, you should be comparing the features of the no-haggle straight priced Model Y to the features and charger network of the dealer-marked-up Ioniq, not comparing to the Model 3.

Barely used Taycan… lol I wonder why they gave it up? Could it be the poor efficiency? Or that a Model S Plaid is quicker and costs less? Or again the charger network has a small existential issue.

> No supercharger network.

Depending where you are in the country, this can be a feature.

Where I live (Oregon), Tesla only bothered to build chargers in the big population centers, while other companies have built CCS chargers all over the place.

If you pick a random geographical location in Oregon it's more likely to be closest to a CCS charger than a Tesla charger.

Tesla wins in other counts like "number of charging stalls" because they built 20 at a time, but you can't road trip to a lot of eastern Oregon with one.

Tesla can still use those CCS chargers tho, so you would only lose chargers by not getting one?

I mean...a Tesla can use a CCS adapter just fine. Then you get way more than either. That is the advantage.

It can, but out of the seven different Tesla owners I know, zero own a CCS charger adapter.

What I've observed is that Tesla owners (this includes my own parents) are so convinced that NACS is superior to CCS (which, to be fair, it has a lot of advantages) that they don't want to use CCS. They'll put down CCS any chance they get, and there's this weird sense of "purity" that they maintain by not using an adapter. Also the adapter costs extra money.

I'm sure that not all Tesla owners are like this, but many of them are, especially people who have owned Teslas for longer.

Probably mostly a 'dont need to'. CCS is annoying- you need the apps and/or to swipe a card, there is no integration in the GPS, etc. The Supercharger is like EZpass for charging - you just plug it in -they bill you later.

Totally agree that for some reason, the most common thread among CCS charging companies is their inability to make it easy to use their chargers. I have a lot of complaints about Tesla, but the charging experience they've developed is not one of them.

Unfortunately, I have a suspicion that once NACS becomes the standard, all the current CCS companies will simply port their terrible user experience over to NACS rather than having the current experience be standard.

Not all Tesla owners are aware of this option.

I don't own a CCS adapter yet, although I'm in the market for one. Not because I need it, but because it's nice to have even more options. I did drive through Eastern (edit: Central and Eastern would be more accurate) Oregon twice a couple years on the way to Idaho and back, and superchargers worked fine, but it's always nice to get more granular coverage.

Personally that notion of purity seems alien to me. I also have a CHAdeMO adapter and have needed it once (edit: nope, a few times, just remembered charging at the Nez Perce Casino in Idaho), but it is nice to have the option.

How is it a feature?

The Pacifica is “ok” for the price, with the plugin you lose the best feature and you’re now quite a bit more out the door.

The sienna with a plug would be quite competitive but even that is a bit more than bog standard.

And nobody makes an EV minivan even though it should be a no-brainer.

> nobody makes an EV minivan even though it should be a no-brainer.

VW makes them, they just won't bring them to the US. They have officially announced they are coming in June, but time will tell. I'm going to look close when it comes - it could save me a lot of $$$ most months (the pacifica hybrid as much lower range on battery and so wouldn't save nearly as much)

We had one and my wife only had to get gas every 3 months or so. Definitely depends on your use but 35-40 miles a day on battery was plenty for her.

The newer ones only get about 20 miles or range.

I have looked at them, but my wife is short and so she cannot reach the pedals. We have an older minivan with adjustable pedals that works well.

Really? The 2020 got 35ish

They dropped the range. Apparently the rules for what qualifies for some rebate changed and so they put in less batteries while also meeting whatever law that was. If you only want the hybrid for rebates then who cares, but if you are looking at them for practical reasons that isn't useful.

I wonder how moddable these things are (can someone sell aftermarket “bigger packs”) besides just filling the back with those power brick setups.

True, but "future minivans" don't help when I needed "now minivans".

And the E-Transit isn't available in a passenger version, I'd've seriously considered it.

I have been driving a 12 year old minivan for a few years for that reason. Also why I'm watching VW so close right now.

The best feature? The only thing you lose is the ability to fold down the middle seat, but you can still remove it if you need to haul something large. We had one for 3 years and needed to take the seats out 3/4 different times.

It's really the defining feature of the Chrysler vans compared to the others, the ability to go from "all seats in van" to "flat empty van" without removing the seats is quite a nice convenience.

And I don't know if you can even get the hybrid in the 8 seat setup, and it's more than $10k more than a somewhat similar Kia.

> BMW X5 plugins are by far the best luxury plugin SUVs that I’ve seen

I'm curious if you shopped the PHEV Cayenne to compare? I'm very likely to buy one this month (used) and the few that I've test-driven have seemed pretty great, coming from a 235K miles 2005 CR-V. :)

I didn’t see one in our area when we were looking. That BMW was the nicest vehicle I’ve ever been in. Absolutely blew me away.

Tesla is the only one I'll buy until any car can use the tesla charger network, others simply aren't very well kept up.

Many cars can use the Tesla network now, and you are probably biased to your geographical area. In Stockholm (Sweden) for example the Tesla chargers are located far away from the city center, while there are many third party chargers available anywhere.

In the US, this isn't the case yet. Other makes won't get access to all V3+ superchargers until later this year.

Supposedly, Ford will get it next month.

If access to the supercharger network is the only factor for you, then it may be good choice. When quality or safety are also factors, then the choice is not obvious. How much will Tesla charge you for repairs over the lifetime of the vehicle. How bigger is the chance that you kill or injure your family due to quality issues. Please have a look at the Reuters Investigation below for context. https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/tesla-mu...

> I hate the lack of an online parts catalog where I can purchase OEM parts. This is a big issue for me. I have enough experience to do anything on ICE car myself, engine rebuild included.

It seems you're not aware that not only the parts catalog is available online for basically everyone [1] but also their repair guides / service manuals [2]?

None cost anything to access, [2] is a free subscription and only costs something if you need their software ("Toolbox") which you can book for a certain time.

[1] https://epc.tesla.com/ [2] https://service.tesla.com/service-manuals

I am well aware of the parts catalog. I was specific about being able to see pricing.

For me this smells like a dark pattern. Tesla gets you in the car at a reasonable price point but why can't they show part prices online? Or even better sell them online? They are a tech company.

Right now, I can tell you the cost of a part for literally any main stream car with just a simple search. I can tell if the parts in stock or if they are out of stock how quickly I can expect to get them.

Why can't tesla do this, if legacy automakers have been doing this for years?

I don't actually mind the center screen on mine - it is actually fine and there is no 'wheel overlaps gauge cluster' issue. I also like the 'air directly hits my face though the wheel factor' That said, I'm weirder than most about airflow. The auto wipers suck, there is no dance around it. My issue is that the silly choices seem to be rapidly worsening.

My 2018 model 3 has fantastic parking sensors. The new cars without them will conveniently tell you to stop when the wall is currently sitting on the hood of the car after you hit it. It is a dumb choice that doesn't work. No turn stalk is just why most drivers don't use signals anymore...which sucks. No drive stalk means confusion about drive direction and if the throttle is armed. I ALREADY have this issue in my model 3, it is incredibly easy to end up going the wrong directly rapidly. The lack of creep means that a model 3 in autohold is easy to confuse for a car in park. They really need to make the P icon bigger.

No online catalog sucks, though I think with volume, that will happen via a third party. A big issue is the fact they they did agile changes to cars in a single model year so it is hard to know which part you need in some cases.

Battery - eh. For a comparable ICE vehicle - my old Volvo XC40 - A motor replacement is not massively far off from a battery, easily close to $10K. I hope that solid state batteries make huge jumps.

My tesla was $30/mo more to insure than the XC40 - that is material. I do save more than $30/mo on gas though, but the Xc40 was a 25mpg premium gas car so that is exceptional.

Seriously. Just give me a NORMAL car with a modern electric drivetrain and I’ll be happy. I have my 4Runner for longer trips and “electric grid down because Texas is a 3rd world island in a 1st world country” situations.

These electric cars are going for full gimmickry and just look like a giant long term ownership nightmare. Built to be disposable status symbols for your average American trying to appear wealthier than they are instead of practical vehicles for the mass market.

One minor comment, but if the electric grid is down, then it's likely you won't be able to pump gas either. At least, most gas stations have not planned to be functional without electricity.

Yeah. But I can still fill an ICE car manually with a can or hand pump.

Also hurricane evacuation with mass electric adoption is going to be an interesting situation to observe. It may be better than with an ICE. We’ll see.

Perhaps, but how many gas stations are going to let you pay cash and use a hand pump? And do you keep spare gas in cans ready, before the outage?

I've never spent enough time in Texas to experience an outage, maybe Texas gas stations are far different than the rest of the US?

I'm pretty sure you can pay cash in most gas stations. You just have to pay to the clerk, instead of at the pump.

But then you also have to meter the gas to know how much to pay. Most gas stations have no plan for a power outage, and little incentive to plan for such a situation.

> And do you keep spare gas in cans ready, before the outage?

A lot of folks keep a 5 gallon for their lawn mower… although gas powered mowers are going the way of the dinosaur too

But yes, I tend to keep 2-4 5 gallon containers of 4 stroke gas. I’m almost certainly an outlier, but in more rural areas where you have to be self sufficient it’s not rare.

Heck, a lot of pickup trucks have diesel tanks with 12v pumps built into the bed.

Normally a manual pump is present.

I believe you but this never made sense to me. A random internet search shows that there are on the order of 100k gas stations in the USA. It seems like FEMA could come up with on the order of $20M to buy generators for all of them and make them come up with a plan to operate without electric power.

Although maybe it costs more than I think? This "industry lobbyist"[1] claims $40k PER PUMP which seems much more expensive than the ~$2000/station I was estimating.

1: https://www.cnbc.com/id/49667864

There needs to be two components: a transfer switch to get off grid power and onto a generator, and then the generator itself.

It looks like Florida started to require installation of transfer switches on stations on evacuation routes, after hurricanes in the early 2000s:

https://www.simplemost.com/gas-stations-pump-without-electri...

However they do not require generators on site, and only require companies with a 10 or more stations in a county to have generators available, but then only within 24 hours.

This is more regulation than I had expected!

There was great article on HN years ago about a Canadian (New Brunswick, maybe?) gas station run by a former software engineer, and how he had planned for an outage by getting a generator for his station. But when the power outage happened, he was too far away to get back to his station, and couldn't find a place to fill up to get back. Wish I could find it again...

In (most?) areas which typically experience longer outages (e.g. due to hurricanes) gas stations have their own generators to keep operating.

If you can get a very base model Nissan Leaf, they're pretty basic. Bonus points if it's a bit older. Ours is extremely old fashioned, and except for the sound when driving is basically indistinguishable from a mid-2010s Honda Fit.

My 2012 Leaf is amazing. It has sadly lost a lot of battery capacity, and I think there is something funny going on with the brakes, but it is still a great car. Just can't go very far anymore. But I only drive it around my small town anyway, so it doesn't need to go very far.

You want a Chevy Bolt.

While you are right on the whole about the gee whiz features, those are also an increasing problem in ICE cars.

I bought a used Model 3 for a little under 40k with a payment of about $500 / month. I was previously spending $500 / month in gas.

The vehicle is literally paying for itself based on my usage.

Now, if you’re driving less the math may not work out but the cost of fuel alone has to factor into those annual maintenance costs.

How are you charging it for free? At the office?

My car insurance is very much higher for a Model 3 than a similarly priced car because repairs are more expensive. This should be added to the TCO.

I like the Model 3 still, because it’s a fun car to drive. It’s not cheap though.

Charge at the house. I haven’t done the math recently but when I had a Chevy Volt the electricity cost was equivalent to about $0.64 / gallon of gas.

It is fun to drive though.

Let's hear the electric bill before/after new car.

Both my wife and I charge at home. We're probably spending somewhere in the neighborhood of $50-80 or so a month in charging versus the $200 or so we'd spend on gas (Texas has relatively cheap electricity rates, but our gas is also fairly cheap)

I'd rather just see the kwh usage. Rates vary wildly in the US, even within the same state. Some states with average prices have utilities with cheap power.

And others with overall low rates have dumb utilities that charge high rates if you use more than 1000kwh, which most EV owners certainly do.

Yes rates vary, the point is to have ballpark figures to compare against the cost of gasoline. Without that the conversation is not particularly useful.

If we know the kwh, we can extrapolate both that and situation specific numbers. Average $/kwh in the US is ~$.15.

This is just like a gas car, where the conversation would start with mpg, not "What's your gas cost per month before and after getting gas car?" It is precisely because of the variation in both gas price and usage that it is important to start from consumption per mile and not a total price.

Asking a random person for their kwh usage is not realistic. Dollars per month change (where they haven't changed driving drastically) is more practical.

But you aren't asking random people. You are asking EV owners on Hacker News.

In general, EV owners are pretty savvy. More than most actually know what they pay per kwh and have a pretty good idea of their consumption. The biggest common mistake that I see is net vs gross.

I was asking brightball.

Best answer I can give: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=38879366

It's tough to isolate because we've been charging for a while. Rates where I am are currently $0.12 / KWh. Last time I did the math they were closer to $0.08 / KWh.

I've got a Tesla Model 3. My wife had a Pacifica Plugin Hybrid. Any given point of the day, one of them is probably plugged in if we're at home.

It took 2-3 hours to recharge the Pacifica for it's 35 mile range. Full recharge on the Tesla is about 5 hours if it's totally drained but the Tesla has much better battery management so you typically set the maximum charge to 80% of the battery for daily driving. Typically, I'll plug the Tesla in when it's still got 50-60% of the battery left.

Looking at a graph of the usage at my house from the utility company is pretty hilly and coincides with weather. Goes up a lot during the hotter months as my AC kicks on. I don't notice anything significant from it though.

I'm also enrolled in a bill normalization program with my utility company where they give me the same bill every month throughout the year so that we don't get surprise spikes as the weather changes.

How many miles per month are you driving? How much does it cost to charge the Tesla each month?

If you were spending $500/month on gas at typical prices that's anywhere from 125 to 170 gallons, if you're only getting 20mpg that's close to 3,000 miles a month, maybe 35,000 miles a year. That's a lot of driving compared to the average person.

Some places are pricier than the gas prices you're assuming.

Even assuming $6/gal and just 20mpg, it's still about 83 miles/day(for 20 work/commuting days a month) or 55 miles/day (with 30 commuting days a month). Assuming a generous 60mph as the avg speed for the commute, that's about 1day/month sitting in a car. More likely avg speed of 30mph and that's 2days a month in the car. That is excessive driving for an average person/commute. I presume op was likely exaggerating to make a point.

Anyway, for any EV owners, a more likely scenario is a person spending about $100-$150 for fuel per month. Doesn't buying a brand new $50000 EV's as opposed to a $30000 IC car (potentially used), and the insurance/registration costs offset the gains made by fuel savings?

> Anyway, for any EV owners, a more likely scenario is a person spending about $100-$150 for fuel per month. Doesn't buying a brand new $50000 EV's as opposed to a $30000 IC car (potentially used), and the insurance/registration costs offset the gains made by fuel savings?

Yes, given current prices, even with a $7.5k subsidy

> potentially used

If you open the door to ~$10k used Japanese compacts with a good 100k+miles left, it's not even remotely close.

EVs are still a rich person thing for now, which may be the primary reason?

If we had access to BYD cars in the US maybe...

Serms like you get it. I wish that Aptera was building at scale and also had a more normal looking alternative model for non-geeks.

But in general, new cars are for well above median income people and used EVs have a cost time bomb attached to them in the form of a battery replacement.

> I was previously spending $500 / month in gas.

To me this seems extreme, what would you say the average gas price is for you and what cars do you drive and what's their fuel efficiency?

This does indeed sound extreme. Even when my wife was commuting 120miles a day, we never spent that much in gas (2012 Honda CR-V). This was from 2018-2022, so lots of variability in prices.

I suppose with a truck or large SUV, it's possible to spend that much, or a commute that is hundreds of miles. Ah, one more scenario, if you have a luxury car and fill it up with premium fuel, that can raise the price substantially.

I drive to a neighboring town 2-3 times a day and I was driving a Dodge Durango that got 20/27mpg.

I checked gas prices in Germany, which I'm fairly sure are higher than in the US, around €1.8 per liter. That makes it about 270l of gasoline.

With the average fuel efficiency in Europe, I'd say the average car here uses about 8-9l in a mixed driving regime (town/city + highway). So that would mean about 3000-3300km per month, 36000-40000km per year.

That's a TON of driving :-O

Edit I:

Though I imagine in the US we're a lot more likely for the fuel efficiency to be closer to 15l/100km (F150 or something), so those distance numbers go down by 60% or so :-)

Edit II:

Oh, I forgot the cost of gas in the US, so nevermind. Gasoline is about 60% cheaper in the US so at the end of the day... the distance numbers do end up closer to 3000km per month.

only ~100km/60miles per day.

Do a 30 mile commute every day plus a weekend outing and you're there. It's a lot of driving, but not totally insane by US standards.

100km a day is really not that much. A lot a friends work in an other town that it’s 50km away so 100km a day just for work.

Jesus, I used to complain about a 30km commute

I kind of agree actually on your cost points. It’s still a luxury purchase. I am a bit more conservative of a saver but feel priced out and sadly went ICE.

If you qualify for the EV tax credit, I would argue the car is too expensive for your budget.

If you don’t qualify barely, a brand new ICE vehicle is going to last years and be cheaper. Is it really worth it to push budget?

If you way don’t qualify, definitely buying an EV. Also congrats on your income.

I thought hybrids were the cost-conscious choice currently?

Super expensive.

I remembered where I got the idea: https://www.consumerreports.org/cars/hybrids-evs/why-hybrid-...

> Hybrid technology has generally meant comparatively higher sticker prices, though fuel savings can defray costs over time. Today’s average hybrid costs about $1,700 more, but the Ford Maverick pickup and Lexus NX SUV hybrids actually have lower sticker prices than gas-only versions. The new Lexus RX Hybrid costs the same as a comparably equipped non-hybrid.

> In 2015 CR calculated that most hybrids took eight years to pay for themselves through fuel savings, with some, including the 2015 Volkswagen Jetta Hybrid and Lexus RX450h, taking more than a decade. Today, improved technology and higher gas prices mean the average payback is four years with gas at $3.35 a gallon and 12,000 miles driven a year. At $3 a gallon, the payback period increases to five years. The more miles driven, the quicker the payback.

> You may also save money on repairs and maintenance. Case in point: The Prius is often in the top spot in our reliability surveys. A hybrid’s regenerative brakes create less wear and tear, so braking components can last longer, too. It’s true that replacing a hybrid battery can be a big expense, costing on average around $7,400, according to RepairPal, but our surveys show such replacements are rare. “Hybrid technology has been very reliable in our studies,” Fisher says.

$1,700 more doesn't seem like that much, and 12,000 miles per year is not a high bar to clear.

Even the new Prius?

A new prius is ~ 28k?

Yep, but you just named a single car.

If you look at any ICE vehicle model, a hybrid version is a super expensive upgrade.

Then demand is greater and they are harder to get — aka, marked up further by dealers.

Not really an argument. Hybrids are very expensive for majority of households to get.

The hybrid version of a rav 4 is ~ 3k more than the base rav 4, and is also functionally at a higher trim level.

Like, sure, if you can't afford the $3k, get the base I guess, but they're not a great deal more expensive, and demand is sort of cratering now that gas is cheap and the 'green halo' effect has moved strictly into the ev realm.

Interestingly it's the same way with the honda civic and insight. Yeah, the insight ~ 3k more but it also comes with more features that many folks are going to opt for anyway.

Finally, to be honest, economically, it never makes sense to buy a new car. Ever. If we really were concerned about value we'd look at prices for a beater prius vs a beater civic. The differential is there, but not that much. As much hay is made about battery degregation, prius batteries have held up surprisingly well. If you were looking for a cheap commuter I'd highly recommend it.

Not sure why you are trying so hard to argue it’s not that expensive. I wish there were better cost options for fuel efficient vehicles.

Unfortunately it is not just $3k.

Hybrid tend to be only on higher more expensive trims. You almost self figured that out.

Then dealer markup.

Then fees and taxes as a percentage of a larger sale.

Is-just-$3k and what you are saying is fantasy land stuff. Maybe if you could buy and configure online like Tesla one day.

And poorly designed. My Chevy Volt is Is a minimum of what a plug-in hybrid should be. I get 45 to 60 miles on a charge (winter-summer), and about 80% of the time, it covers a hundred percent of my driving.

I think that size the batteries for plug-in hybrid depends on your usual driving patterns. Daily driving, the 50 mile range I have now is great. About twice a week I need more like 100 mile range and 2-3 times a month, we take longer weekend trips around New England.

> If you qualify for the EV tax credit, I would argue the car is too expensive for your budget.

The AGI limit for a couple is $300K. I'm pretty anti-new car as a financial move, but even I have to admit that a couple pulling down $250K-$300K/yr is probably going to be able to fade buying a new car if they want.

Agree but everything is obviously relative to people’s situation and no perfect rule.

Location, state property taxes, share the car or not, do they already have loan on another new car, new home owners or not, current net worth, age/retirement goal, kids, kids in daycare, etc…

$300k AGI can get eaten ridiculously quick. Hence why I think an EV is too expensive for most.

Any new car is too expensive for most, so in that limited sense I agree with you.

The EV credit serves to make an EV competitive on a TCO basis, so if you can afford any new car, you can probably equally well afford an EV with the credit.

The new Prius prime finally has EV range comparable to the Volt. That should be most people’s sedan pick if they aren’t looking for a budget option.

Prius Prime is my pick for a next car whenever my late 2000s Civic goes kaput. But that might be a while :)

Unfortunately they're hard to find in stock and without a mark up. There's probably some 2+ hours away from here, but I wish there was at least one nearby to test drive first before committing to a 4+ hour drive...

Definitely worth calling out how reliable and high quality modern ICE drivetrains are. I believe consumer reports found EVs to have a lower total cost of ownership after a few years: https://advocacy.consumerreports.org/press_release/new-analy...

With thousands fewer parts, cheaper fuel, and the time savings of not having to go to a gas station, EVs have a lot of things working in their favor to make them cheaper to operate.

agree with absolutely everything you said.

I purchased my corrolla off the lot in 2004 and _chose_ to go with manual everything for because it's cheaper and more reliable.

here we are 20 years on and that car is rock solid reliable with 168k miles and regular maintenance. I'm hoping to get another 20 years out of it.

When I decided I needed a minivan I went out and bought a 2007 Honda Odyssey, put a few thousand dollars into it and it runs like a champ (has just under 190k miles on it). But the Odyssey has an ongoing problem I'm trying to figure out and rectify ... the power sliding doors. I'd honestly rather just open them manually.

People love their convenience, but you know these vehicles with all their fancy whizbang features are going to be a maintenance burden during their lifetime.

There's something to be said about simplicity.

100%. My S.O. wants my next car to be an electric, but I'm hesitant because my current car (an 05 Civic LX) has been running non-stop like a champ since the day I started driving it 17 years ago. I've been going to the same mechanic in all that time, and repair costs have always been low thanks in part to the OEM market, but also to the self-repairability of older Hondas. I dread the day I have to get a new car only to find out I can't self-repair the car as much as I do now.

Or I could get Kia with 7 year 150 Mm warranty. For even cheaper than the Toyota... Not ofc, covering everything, but enough...

That is lot to save on fuel and maintenance... Which I would estimate to be around 500 a year for maintenance...

Kia’s also get stolen and broken into because how easy they are to steal

Didn't they fix that?

Yes. Even the older cars have a software patch to tie engine start to the keyless entry.

And yet the 14 year-olds in my city keep stealing them every day. I'm pretty sure you're mistaken about the fix for older cars.

You are correct. Some models couldn't get the software update, so now they are getting a more secure ignition cylinder.

https://www.cars.com/articles/kia-introduces-free-anti-theft...

Total Cost of Ownership is already significantly lower than a Corolla's so idk what's stopping you buddy.

https://cleantechnica.com/2019/06/22/toyota-corolla-vs-tesla...

Their most expensive electricity scenario is 20c/kWh. Maybe that was realistic when the article was written 5 years ago, but electricity is definitely more expensive than that in California now, even with a special EV rate plan.

Mine is over $0.60/kWh in Silicon Valley ironically making most gas cars cheaper per mile.

Truthfully, if electricity is getting that expensive in your area, your very first move should be to put some solar panels on your roof not buying a new car.

Not always an option for all people but that's what I'd be doing in that situation.

Yep, make sure to install a $50k solar system in your 3 million dollar SFH, then they’re super cost effective, and for everyone!!

I’d say my used 2016 X with free supercharging was a good deal but in the year I’ve owned it I spent $2k on repairs for things like the drivers window falling down and the f**ing wing door failing to register as locked and beeping incessantly while driving.

That’s not to mention the horrible ride quality, 10k depreciation and the $3k aftermarket fix for halfshaft and tire wear problems.

But at least I can fry the battery for free.

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